Can Democrats take the Senate? Here are the key races to watch.

Midterm elections are taking shape across the country, and Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances to retake the US Senate.

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There are far too many factors between now and November to say which race will be decided with certainty, including a number of outstanding primary contests that will determine the final November matchups. But a path exists for Democrats to flip control of the upper chamber of Congress. To do so, the party needs to hold onto three battleground seats and flip four others.

Here’s a rundown of nine Senate races we’re watching. Race ratings are based on the latest analysis from the Cook Political Report. Check back, as we will update this tracker as primary contests around the country conclude and the political winds shift.

Primary date: June 2

What to know:Republican Iowa Senator Joni Ernst is retiring, and Democrats are hoping to flip her seat in a state they haven’t won a federal office in since Barack Obama’s presidential reelectionin 2012. Josh Turek, a state representative, and Zach Wahls, a state senator, are vying for the Democratic nomination on Tuesday. US Representative Ashley Hinson is favored to win her state’s GOP nomination.

Race Rating: Likely Republican. Cook updated its rating from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican” on June 4, 2025.

Primary date: June 9

What to know: Maine’s general election ballot is nearly set between incumbent Republican Susan Collins and progressive Graham Platner, after Governor Janet Mills suspended her bid for the Democratic nomination in April. Collins, 73, is facing questions about her age and closeness to President Trump, who’s lost all three of his presidential bids in the state. Platner is facing tough scrutiny about his past as he tries to flip a seat Collins has held since 1997.

Race Rating: Tossup. Cook updated its rating from “leans Republican” to a “tossup” race on October 14, 2025.

Primary runoff date: June 16

What to know: Two Republicans are vying for the party’s nomination in a primary runoff on June 16 — US Representative Mike Collins, a Trump ally, and Derek Dooley, a former NFL and college football coach who’s been backed by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. TheDemocratic incumbent, Senator Jon Ossoff, ran uncontested for his party’s nomination and is seeking a second term.

Race Rating: Leans Democrat. Cook updated its rating from a ”tossup” race to “leans Democrat” on April 13.

Primary date: August 4

What to know: Three Democrats are running for their party’s nomination in what’s shaping up to be a messy race: State Senator Mallory McMorrow, US Representative Haley Stevens, and Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official. Former US Representative Mike Rogers, who lost a bid for the US House in 2024 by less than 20,000 votes, is running uncontested for the GOP nomination and hoping to flip retiring Senator Gary Peters’ seat.

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Race Rating: Tossup.

Primary date: August 18

What to know: Former US Representative Mary Peltola, the favored Democratic nominee, is hoping to kick out incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who’s running for a third term. Peltola won a special election for Alaska’s lone House seat in 2022, but lost to US Representative Nick Begich in 2024 by just 2 points.

Race Rating: Leans Republican. Cook updated its rating from a “solid Republican” race to “leans Republican” on January 12.

Primary date: September 8

What to know:With Democratic Senate Jeanne Shaheen not seeking reelection, Republicans are hoping for a chance to flip a seat in a purple statethat’s elected an all-Democratic congressional delegation since 2017. Former Senator John Sununu, whom Shaheen oustedin 2008, is running with President Trump’s endorsement for the GOP nomination against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Brown moved to New Hampshire after losing his seat in 2014 (to Elizabeth Warren) and served as Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa during his first administration. US Representative Chris Pappas is favored to winthe Democratic nomination.

Race Rating: Leans Democrat.

What to know: Democrats are honing in on the race for Senate John Cornyn’s seat, who lost in the GOP primary runoff to President Trump’s pick, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. State Representative James Talarico won the Democratic nomination over US Representative Jasmine Crockett in March and has brought in a massive amount of campaign cash since. Democrats are focusing on Paxton’s long line of scandals, including an impeachment and criminal fraud charges, while Republicans are attacking Talarico on culture war topics.

Race Rating: Leans Republican. Cook updated its rating from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” on May 27, after Paxton won the GOP nomination.

What to know:GOP Senator Jon Husted, Ohio’s former lieutenant governor, was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to replace Vice President JD Vance after the 2024 election. Husted is fighting to keep his seat against Sherrod Brown, a former three-term Democratic Senator who lost to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024. Democrats are hoping Brown’s name recognition and moderate platform can help them get back to a split Senate delegation.

Race Rating: Tossup. Cook updated its rating from “leans Republican” to a “tossup” race on April 13.

What to know: Democrats’ likely best chance at flipping a Senate seat is in North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is up against Michael Whatley, whom President Trump picked to run the Republican National Committee after his 2024 win. Cooper left office in 2025 after serving two terms and outperformed Democrats in both of his gubernatorial elections in 2016 and 2020.

Race Rating: Leans Democrat. Cook updated its rating from a “tossup” race to “leans Democrat” on April 13.

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