The Markey-Moulton Senate primary is a month away, but it’s hardly heating up

If people in Massachusetts talk about the state’s Democratic US Senate primary, they might describe it as a sleeper race about to catch fire — or just downright sleepy.

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But with a month to go before the Sept. 1 election between incumbent Senator Ed Markey and Salem Representative Seth Moulton, the better word to describe the contest might be stuck.

Since the race began last fall, the same story lines have repeated over and over: Markey has remained the front-runner, fund-raising is nothing to brag about for either candidate, and nothing appears capable of breaking the logjam.

That has made Massachusetts an outlier in a year when Democratic Senate primaries have produced plenty of drama in Maine, Texas, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan. In those states, campaigns have been reshaped by scandals, competitive polling, ideological fights, and late-breaking developments. Massachusetts has stood apart instead for how each week has looked almost exactly like the one before it.

It’s also nothing like the same contest six years ago, when former representative Joe Kennedy III challenged Markey in the primary. Kennedy also made generational change the centerpiece of his campaign, but he captured national attention and national fund-raising. More importantly, Kennedy led in the early polls.

It was only after the pandemic hit that Markey and his team used digital campaigning to gain momentum and eventually take the lead.

That race, in other words, had an arc and drama.

This time around, the contest isn’t about any particular vote, accusations of nepotism, or even where the candidates live. Instead, it has largely become a debate about age.

Moulton, 47, has consistently argued that Markey, 80, is simply too old to serve another term. It is how Moulton launched his campaign, and it has remained the central message of his advertising. If there was any notable development this summer, it came during the candidates’ first debate, when Markey said this would be his final term if reelected.

Over the weekend, Moulton tried to add another layer to that argument. He noted that if Democrats regain the Senate majority this year, it will likely be by a narrow margin. He then pointed to Senator Mitch McConnell, who has remained hospitalized since June, arguing that an aging senator becoming unable to serve could have major consequences for control of the chamber.

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Here’s the thing: While concerns about age may poll well in theory, there is no public evidence that the issue is moving votes in this particular primary.

In the Globe‘s poll in April, only 26 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said Markey’s age would influence their vote “a lot.” Another68 percent said it would influence them “a little” or have no impact at all.

Not much has changed since then, other than some polling suggesting Moulton has narrowed the gap somewhat.

For his part, Markey has claimed that Moulton isn’t progressive enough to be a champion in the Senate that Bay State Democrats expect. And, he too, has been making this same argument since the fall.

One reason the race may have remained so stable is the nature of the electorate itself. Massachusetts’ September primary tends to attract older, highly engaged Democratic voters who are familiar with both candidates and less likely to be swayed by television ads or a single campaign moment. That doesn’t mean the race can’t change, but it does mean any shift is likely to happen more gradually than in a lower-information electorate.

To be sure, a lot can still happen in the final month. In the latest poll released a month ago, more than 20 percent of voters were still undecided. National attention has largely been focused on other primaries. Neither campaign has spent heavily on advertising, although it’s fair to question how much attention August television ads will receive from voters who are traveling, on vacation, or otherwise tuned out of politics.

Still, campaigns rarely remain frozen forever. An unexpected endorsement, a major advertising blitz, a standout debate performance, or an outside event could yet reshape the race. The calendar itself also creates pressure. Every week that passes without a significant change leaves Moulton with fewer opportunities to persuade voters that the race should be about something other than the status quo.

For now, though, this remains a contest defined less by momentum than by inertia.

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