Jaylen Brown’s stats are what they are, but a closer look at game situations paints a clearer picture
In the aftermath of the Celtics ending an era by trading Jaylen Brown to the 76ers ― and also in the wake of criticism that many advanced metrics didn’t view him as one of the NBA’s elite players despite his accomplishments over his 10-year career ― the part that might get lost is that when Brown was on the floor, the Celtics were really good.
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They racked up 56 wins and were the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference last season. They scored 120.8 points per 100 possessions overall and when Brown was on the floor, they scored 119. In both instances, that ranked second in the league.
The Celtics allowed 112.7 points per 100 possessions as a team — the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA — and when Brown was on the floor they allowed 113 (10th in the NBA).
But whether Brown made the Celtics better or worse depends on the lens.Without question, when Brown was off the floor, the Celtics looked different.
With Brown on the floor, the Celtics shot a higher field goal percentage (47.5 percent on, 45.5 off), got to the free throw line at a higher rate (22.1 on, 18.5 off), took a larger share of their shots in the paint (39.8 percent on, 36.5 off), and played at a slightly faster pace (97.7 possessions per game on, 94.7 off).
They pushed the tempo, pressured the rim, and got to the free throw line.
When Brown was off the floor, the Celtics took a higher proportion of their shots from 3-point range than from inside the arc (51.8 percent compared with 44.2 percent). Their assist ratio (18.3), assist-to-turnover ratio (2.1), and assist percentage (61.7) were all higher, and a greater share of their made baskets came off assists (61.7 percent; 56.6 percent when he was on).
They spaced the floor, moved the ball, and found shooters who could do damage.
The other wrinkle was that the Celtics also defended better when Brown wasn’t on the floor.
Opponents scored 113 points per 100 possessions with Brown on the court, 106.7 when he wasn’t.
But context matters.
Brown is one of the few players in the league who carried a primary scoring role while also spending most nights guarding the opposing team’s best scorer.
When Bam Adebayo scored 83 against Washington in March, his primary defensive matchup was Alex Sarr. When Luka Dončić scored 60 against Miami nine days later, he spent much of the night guarding second-year wing Pelle Larsson. When Nikola Jokić scored 56 against the Timberwolves on Christmas, he was defending Rudy Gobert. When James Harden scored 55 against the Hornets in November, he defended rookie Sion James.
Brown’s biggest scoring nights often came with a different kind of workload.
He matched a career high with 50 points on Jan. 3 against the host Clippers while spending most of his defensive possessions on Kawhi Leonard, who went 3 for 7 while Brown was the primary defender, according to NBA matchup data.
Brown scored 43 in Miami on April 1 while matched up with Tyler Herro, who went 1 for 6 against Brown.
With Brown on the floor, the Celtics consistently built leads. While he was off, his teammates maintained them.
Brown played 71 regular-season games last season. Over those games, he checked into or out 223 times — essentially working 223 different shifts.
His first job each night was helping the Celtics establish a lead. More often than not, he did.
Brown handed teammates a lead at the end of 40 of his 71 opening shifts by an average of 7.7 points. Once Brown left the floor, his teammates maintained 35 of those leads and blew five of them.
From there, it became a relay.
More often than not, the scoreboard was already in Brown’s favor when he checked in. He inherited 100 leads. The average margin when he entered was 9.4 points. By the time he checked out, it had grown to 10.4. He preserved 83 of those leads and let only 17 slip away — 14 deficits and three ties.
His teammates handed him 45 deficits. On average, the Celtics trailed by 9 points when Brown checked in. By the time he checked out, he had trimmed those deficits to 6.8 points.
He erased deficits entirely 12 times, including Dec. 26 in Indiana. The bench handed Brown a 5-point deficit with 9:54 left in the second quarter. Brown stayed on the floor for the next 21 minutes, scored 18 points on 9-of-12 shooting, and helped turn a tight game into a 140-122 blowout.
There were nights when things went the other way.
On Feb. 6 at home against Miami, the Celtics were still adjusting after acquiring Nikola Vucevic. The new lineup stumbled out of the gate, missing 20 of its first 22 3-pointers. When Brown checked out with 2:10 left in the first quarter, he handed teammates a 15-point deficit that grew to 22 in the second quarter.
Brown scored 24 points on 9-of-20 shooting through his first 23 minutes to keep Boston within striking distance, but the breakthrough didn’t come until after he checked out with 6:53 left in the third quarter and the Celtics trailing, 79-76. Without him, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and Vucevic fueled a 30-9 run that carried Boston to a 98-96 comeback victory.
Brown left the Celtics in a hole, but he also helped dig them out of it. His teammates finished the job.
For the overwhelming majority of his stints, Brown handed teammates a lead when he left the floor — 140 times. When non-Brown lineups inherited deficits, they erased them 19 times.
When Brown handed teammates a lead, they rarely gave it away. They played to two ties and blew only seven leads before Brown returned. In general, the scoreboard looked much the same when he checked back in as when he left. The average lead was 11.6 points when Brown checked out and 11.5 when he checked back in.
On-and-off metrics implicitly treat every possession and every shift the same. Brown’s season suggests they rarely are.
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