The 4 most pressing questions about the Maine Senate contest right now

On one level, Maine’s US Senate contest is easy for everyone to understand.

Republican incumbent Susan Collins remains a difficult candidate for Democrats to beat as she heads into her sixth reelection campaign.

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Her Democratic opponent, Graham Platner, has had virtually every ally abandon his campaign in the last 24 hours after a Politico report on Monday detailed an accusation from a former girlfriend that he raped her when the two dated nearly five years ago. National Democrats say that as long as Platner remains the Democratic nominee, they won’t spend a cent on the race.

But if Platner drops out by Monday at 5 p.m., Maine Democrats can replace him with another candidate.

With that baseline of facts comes a million questions—some about how this will all work, others more philosophical—about what could happen next.

Based on conversations with Maine political operatives and activists, this is a narrowed-down list of the four biggest questions surrounding the race right now.

Will Platner actually drop out?

Without outside financial support or backing from fellow Democrats, it is hard to see how Platner and his team could credibly argue they still have a chance of winning what was expected to be the most expensive race in Maine history against a candidate who hasn’t lost an election in three decades.

But the choice to stay or leave the race is entirely his. He overwhelmingly won the Democratic nomination last month by defeating a sitting two-term governor. The latest allegations, which Platner denies, are awful. If he leaves now, it will likely be the last time anyone hears from Platner, and the allegation will be the last thing remembered about him.

If he stays in, he could become known for something else. It’s possible. No one can predict the future. Of course, the most likely outcome is that he will be remembered as the Democrat who sank any chance of winning Maine and, with it, likely any chance for Democrats to retake the Senate.

But until he actually drops out—and the timing between now and next Monday doesn’t really matter—this remains the first and biggest question, no matter how obvious the answer may appear to everyone, especially those in Maine who are already moving on.

If Platner does step down, how will the process to pick his replacement work?

While Maine Democrats and Republicans regularly pick replacement nominees for legislative races—for all kinds of reasons—the unique nature of this race is forcing the party to reinvent the wheel.

What appears to be top of mind is that party leaders don’t want a process that is so insular and smoke-filled that the rank and file feel the fix was in or that the eventual nominee isn’t viewed as a credible choice.

That’s why momentum appears to be moving away from simply having the roughly 100 members of the Maine Democratic State Committee vote and toward some type of flash caucus or hastily assembled convention.

But there are problems with that approach as well. If Platner drops out, the party has only two weeks by law to choose a replacement.

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Does the nominee have to be in the ideological mold of Platner?

Platner may not be allowed to have any say over who replaces him. Similarly, whoever replaces him probably doesn’t want Platner’s endorsement or to spend the campaign answering questions about it.

That said, the progressive base still has leverage. It chose Platner’s message despite all the well-documented problems with Platner the messenger. Mainers aren’t unique in embracing the anti-establishment mood that has emerged in Democratic primaries across the country.

So do Maine Democrats need to pick someone more aligned with Platner? Consider this: Platner built what his campaign says is the largest grassroots volunteer network in Maine political history. They claim it numbers more than 15,000 people, and there is evidence on the ground that it is massive. Platner himself was bunkered down over the weekend, but his volunteers ran scores of parade floats and visibility events at July 4 celebrations across the state.

Does the party really want to gamble on picking someone who dampens that energy and sends those volunteers home instead of knocking on doors?

And consider this: when establishment-backed former House Speaker Sara Gideon lost to Collins in 2020, it wasn’t because she underperformed in swing or rural areas. The post-election analysis was clear that she underperformed Joe Biden in heavily Democratic, progressive strongholds.

Why shouldn’t the party pick the most bland, generic Democratic candidate it can find?

The counterargument to the previous question is much simpler. Democrats’ main priority now is picking a candidate who can win—and nothing else. If that candidate is a conventional, uncontroversial Democrat, that may be exactly what works in 2026.

After all, this isn’t 2020. Trump isn’t on the ballot, but he remains deeply unpopular in Maine. Collins is also more unpopular now than she was six years ago when she last ran. The problem with Platner is that, for the last few months, the Maine Senate race has been all about him. In fact, polling released last week suggested that if Democrats had simply united behind Platner, he would have been leading comfortably rather than tied.

Democrats need the race to be about Collins’ record or Trump’s influence, if for no other reason than to unite Democrats against a common opponent.

If Democrats simply nominate someone safe and without baggage, the conversation may quickly shift back to Collins and Trump. A conventional nominee would also give donors permission to start spending in Maine again.

And maybe, just maybe, in that scenario the establishment can call the progressive base’s bluff. Progressive voters may ultimately hold their noses and vote for the Democratic nominee anyway simply to defeat Collins and Trump.

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