Not all is lost for last-place Red Sox, as a down American League leaves a wild-card spot within reach
Almost everything has gone wrong for the 2026 Red Sox. Emphasis on almost.
With a 3-1 loss to the Phillies on Thursday night, the Sox occupy last place in the American League East, 10½ games behind the first-place Rays. Yet their playoff hopes haven’t receded completely from view thanks to a vast wasteland of league mediocrity in an era of expanded playoffs.
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To this point, the 2026 American League has a significant claim to being amidst the worst start ever by a league. Every team entered Thursday having played at least 42 games. At the 42-game marker, just three teams (Rays, 28-14; Yankees, 26-16; Athletics, 22-20) were over .500.
How rare is that? Since the introduction of the wild card in 1995, this is the first time either league has had only three teams above .500 through 42 games.
Not since 1998 had either league had fewer than five. From 1995-2025, each league averaged seven.
The result? Despite an 18-24 start that ranked as the worst by the Red Sox since 2020, the Sox sat just 2½ games out of the third wild-card spot. Whereas the Mets and Giants entered Thursday with 18-25 records that landed them 6½ games outside, the Sox face a less steep incline thanks to the grim state of the AL.
The result? Despite their worst start since 2020, the Sox remain three games out of the third wild-card spot. The Mets and Giants also are 18-25, but are seven games out of a playoff spot in a stronger National League.
“We obviously, to this point, have not had the start record-wise that we want,” said interim manager Chad Tracy. “There are other years where you look and say, ‘Man, that dug us in a really, really big hole.’ It certainly has in the division. But this year, for whatever reason, you look and say, ‘This hasn’t dug us in a massive hole as far as the playoffs are considered.’
“You stop saying it’s early because, like we’ve got to [start playing better baseball]. But it is May [14], and we’re only [three] or whatever games it is from a wild-card spot. I think you look at that and say, ‘Count your blessings there.’ It seems like other teams are having the same issues we are trying to get on track.”
Of course, there’s another way of looking at the Sox’ poor performance. Having a worse record than 12 of the 15 AL teams, including seven with losing records, speaks to both a missed opportunity and the depths of their early-season woes.
But it also speaks to the possibility of improvement. Foremost, if the lineup can even perform at a middle-of-the-pack level rather than as one of the worst (3.7 runs per game, tied for second-worst in baseball), the pitching has been good enough (2.56 ERA in May) to see how the club could move forward amidst the peloton of wild-card contenders.
There is also the prospect of a trade — though any significant deals at this stage of the season remain unlikely, according to league sources. The Sox, like other struggling teams, are spitballing both big and small trade ideas within their own walls, and there has been more industry-wide chatter than is typical at this stage of the season.
But the teams amidst the most disappointing starts (including the Sox, Mets, Angels, Astros, and Giants) can still squint and see a path to contention — and in multiple cases, have front offices that may be fighting for their jobs.
As such, even if teams made difference-making players available, they’d likely hold out for incredibly high returns. This is a time of year where trade discussions more typically come as demands rather than as the basis for negotiations. Those dynamics rarely serve as precursors to major moves.
Instead, the Sox are focused chiefly on internal improvement, while also recognizing the struggles of competitors have kept them in a better position than they likely deserve.
They are not the memeified cartoon dog sitting in the middle of flames pronouncing, “This is fine.” They own their record. They recognize the need to be better than what they’ve been. Still, they’re not blind to the shortage of both heavyweights and middleweights in the rest of the league.
“We really haven’t taken off yet,” said reliever Justin Slaten. “We’re not where we want to be, but we’re also not entirely in a horrible spot given kind of the state of the rest of the American League.”
The poor starts across the league represent a gift to the Sox. It remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of it.
“It’s up to us to turn it around and go on a run,” said Slaten. “But nobody in here has lost any sort of confidence or faith where it’s just like, ‘The season’s over.’ If it was a month left and we were at the bottom of the standings, then you’re like, ‘Well, this kind of feels insurmountable.’
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“Nothing about this feels insurmountable.”
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