Game 4 of the NBA Finals was a case study in 3-pointer strategy that may have cost the Spurs a championship

The anatomy of the Spurs’ 29-point blown lead in Game 4 of the Finals began in the third quarter when they insisted on bombarding the Knicks with 3-pointers after they made an NBA-record 14 in the first half.

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The problem was the Spurs’ insistence on the three betrayed them when the game was in the balance. They were 3 for 17 from beyond the arc in the second half, leading to their demise and raising questions about the team’s offensive strategy with a large lead.

It also continued the increasingly heated debate as the value of the 3-pointer, especially when it comes to holding leads. More than 43 percent of the Spurs’ shots in the second half were beyond the arc, and they were never able to regain the shooting prowess that gave them such a large lead.

Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has been admonished for his team’s approach when trying to rally from a late-game deficit in Game 7 of a first-round series against the 76ers as it attempted to take the lead with a barrage of 3-pointers.

In the Spurs’ case, the theory is if they had taken more time off the clock and taken more quality 2-point shots, they would have never relinquished the lead. But the primary reason that no lead is safe in the NBA is twofold.

Teams with big leads tend to get comfortable, stray away from their designed offense, and opt for hero-ball shots because there is less risk. Opponents respond to those deficits by taking more 3-pointers and in the Game 4 situation, the Knicks went 11 for 20 from beyond the arc in the second half, scoring 24 more points than San Antonio on threes. That’s helpful in making up a 29-point deficit.

In addition to players such as De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama taking major blame for their late-game blunders, coach Mitch Johnson accepted responsibility for allowing his team to play so carelessly on offense in the second half.

“Actually, to be honest, the third quarter had the most disappointing parts in terms of the lead was big, it wasn’t quite hurting us enough, wasn’t quite not feeling good yet, because now you’re up 22, you’re up 18,” Johnson said. “It’s hard to win an NBA game by 30 points for this stretch of the game. There’s natural logic that understands teams make runs. You may not just boat race somebody in an NBA Finals game at their place.

“But there was a lot of things that we did, where it felt like we could have put our energy into the right spots in that third quarter. Some things that I could have done to help that, as well. The third quarter for me was the one that stood out, especially after what we said at halftime, just in terms of putting our energy into the right places and the level of execution.”

As Mazzulla once explained, even though the coach can preach to his players to continue to take the game seriously with large leads, it’s nearly impossible to avoid slippage.

The Knicks weren’t going to go play as badly as they did in the first half and the Spurs weren’t going to play as well, but the second-half numbers were striking. The Spurs were unrecognizable offensively in the first two quarters, completely losing their way even through they still held a 20-point lead with just over nine minutes left.

But by then the collapse had already been completed. The Spurs completely lost their personality, as their fascination with the 3-pointer led to the total deterioration of their offense.

“Of course, there were a thousand ways we could have not lost that game,” Wembanyama said. “It felt like there was a time to process this, to really dwell on it. But not anymore. Yeah, of course, absolutely, greediness. I guess the general thing would be, like, giving them less opportunities rather than doing something incredible.”

The Spurs’ terrible offensive approach may have cost them a championship. But it could also serve as a lesson about how to manage large leads, and that the 3-point shot is not always your friend.

“I think we did some of the wrong stuff,” Stephon Castle said. “I think our shot selection wasn’t great. But I think it started with our defense. Just going back and watching it, we got let off the hook a lot in the second half. We had some bad defensive possessions, and even though they didn’t make the shot so it didn’t really feel that bad, I feel like the possession itself was still bad, and it was just a trickle-down effect for the rest of the second half.”

According to those around the NBA, the Celtics are expected to be active this summer in their roster upgrade. Perhaps watching the rival Knicks play for their first title in 53 years served as enough incentive to put together another championship-caliber roster.

The Celtics could start their return to prominence by using their $27.7 million trade exception, the second-largest in the league. The Grizzlies have a $28.8 million exception generated from the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade.

The condition for using a trade exception, which is similar to a coupon, is that the Celtics could acquire a player who earned $27.7 million or less in a deal without having to send out equal salary. The player cannot earn more than the trade exception, and multiple players cannot be combined into one exception.

Here is a list of potential candidates for that trade exception, veteran players who could help the Celtics right away, adding another key component to the lineup.

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▪ Anfernee Simons

Now Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens’s trade of Simons to Chicago for Nikola Vucevic could have been considered a regrettable move because Vucevic struggled after Simons was solid in his Boston stint. But the deal did create the trade exception and the Celtics could either re-sign Simons using their mid-level exception or have the Bulls re-sign Simons and acquire him through a sign-and-trade. Either way, Simons would be a welcome addition, giving the bench another scoring lift and a player who meshed well with his teammates and with Mazzulla’s system. Simons is an unrestricted free agent and may not receive the lucrative contract he was initially seeking. He’s a player who could be available in the opening days of free agency.

▪ Fred VanVleet

Coming off a missed season because of a torn anterior cruciate ligament, VanVleet is set to return to the Rockets fully healthy. The question is whether the Rockets will want him back. The pressure is on coach Ime Udoka to win next season after an embarrassing first-round playoff elimination to the shorthanded Lakers and they may be seeking a frontline point guard. VanVleet could not only stabilize the offense but also provide a scoring threat and emerge as a veteran leader. He will earn $25 million in the final year of his contract and the Rockets could make him available.

▪ Trey Murphy

Now this would be the best-case scenario for the Celtics. Murphy is a young, talented wing who can defend, score at the rim, and shoot the 3-pointer. He is entering the second year of a four-year deal and would require considerable draft compensation in return. It’s uncertain if Pelicans president Joe Dumars is willing to give up such a valuable piece for picks, or does he want to hold onto the team’s core. With having to pay the likes of Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears rookie extensions over the next few years, the Pelicans may be looking to slice payroll.

▪ Malik Monk

Monk has been on the block before in Sacramento and the house-cleaning Kings could make him available for draft assets. The guard has rarely played in a winning situation and winning culture so it’s unsure whether his game would elevate with a playoff team where his role would be more specific. Monk is player who can score in bursts and give any bench a fearless bucket getter. He may be the most obtainable of the players on this list and could be a welcome addition to the bench.

▪ Cameron Johnson

The Nuggets acquired Johnson from the Nets for a quality 3-point shooter and strong defender. Johnson struggled this season and Denver may be looking to move him as they continue to tinker with the roster. The forward is entering the final year of his contract and could be acquired for draft compensation. Denver may be inclined to use the Johnson money on bringing back valuable wing Peyton Watson, who is a restricted free agent. Johnson’s scoring took a dip from the previous season in Brooklyn but he made 43 percent of his 3-point attempts and is a plus defender. But the addition of Johnson may mean the potential end in Boston for Derrick White.

The NBA has revised its lottery system and while the league is excited about the possibility of eliminating tanking, it may be more difficult for struggling, small-market teams to rebuild if they have lesser odds of landing a premium pick.

The Spurs are the perfect example of a team that rebuilt through the draft and select free agency. Years of losing and sinking into the draft lottery produced the likes of Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, Castle, and Devin Vassell. Keldon Johnson was a late first-round pick in 2019.

The Spurs missed the playoffs for six consecutive years and then capitalized with fruitful drafts. It’s the perfect framework for a roster rebuild with a small market team, but when those downtrodden teams are now going to have few chances at premium picks.

Can these teams rebuild with mid first-rounders? The league will find out.

“The draft still only includes, largely, teams that aren’t in the playoffs,” commissioner Adam Silver said. “So you have 14 teams who aren’t even eligible to get a lottery pick. You have for a bottom 10 teams, still have a 70 percent chance of getting a top-10 pick.

“And you know, I think the world has changed considerably, too. There used to be this notion in the draft, was this small-market lure was the only way to build your franchise. I look around the league now, in the same way the country and the world have changed in dramatic ways because of digital media. It would be hard to argue that Victor Wembanyama is not getting the global attention he deserves because he’s playing in a small market, San Antonio. I get questions all the time about the impact of having a successful Knicks team in the league office.”

The Knicks couldn’t afford (pun intended) to rebuild through the draft. They are a roster constructed of free agency and trades, the astute signing of Jalen Brunson, acquisitions of OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, and trade for Karl-Anthony Towns.

They were built because the Knicks had resources, took chances and sacrificed considerable draft capital.

“While it’s wonderful to have a great Knicks team, like I said, this will be eight different champions in eight years,” Silver said. “And we seem to be fine, also, when we have Oklahoma City and Indianapolis in the Finals.

“I think in this new system through the lottery, it’s going to put more emphasis on drafting deeper. I think it’s going to put more emphasis on scouting during the season where you’re paying a lot of attention to maybe players 6 through 10 on roster that traditionally haven’t gotten the same focus.”

What teams such as the Celtics are learning about this ever-changing NBA is that the deeper and more athletic the roster, the better chance of a deep playoff run. The Spurs and Knicks each have 10-deep rosters and New York coach Mike Brown even went 12-deep in Game 4 because of foul trouble.

“Remember when I got involved in this league, there were maybe sort of two or three players and [then] everybody else on every team,” Silver said. “I’m also fond of saying, when I got to the league in the early ’90s, roughly five percent of the players were international in this league. Now it’s roughly one-third. There’s this global pool of incredible talent.

“Lastly, just look at these two teams, how deep they are. Look how deep these rosters are and look how deep teams have to be to be successful in this league. So I think rebuilding will come in different ways than it did in the old days. But still, just as I look at San Antonio and New York and say, compliment them for team building, for management, for culture building, I think it’s going to be the same in every market.”

Former Celtics guard Terry Rozier pleaded not guilty to additional betting charges and will have a February trial in New York. After being charged with accepting money to impact his performance during a 2023 game while with the Hornets, Rozier received an additional charge for allegedly accepting $100,000 to alter his performance for prop bets. He has not been allowed any contact with the Hornets or other teams and has appealed that decision with hopes of an NBA return if he is ruled innocent. A Celtics first-round draft pick in 2016, Rozier is 32 and his play declined in his final years with the Heat … The Bulls are still looking for a coaching replacement for Billy Donovan and two of the finalists are Tiago Splitter, who led the Trail Blazers to their first playoff appearance in five years as an interim coach but has not been brought back by new team owner Tom Dundon,and Timberwolves assistant Micah Nora, a top first-time coaching candidate … The Wizards own the No. 1 pick for the NBA Draft and are favored to use it on Brockton native AJ Dybantsa — but could be open to moving it for the right package. Washington plans on meeting with the gifted Dybantsa, who was the NBA player media representative prior to Game 4 of the Finals. But the Wizards have been mum on their final decision. Of course, Danny Ainge and the Jazz would love to swap picks with a chance to get Dybantsa, who played at BYU and attended prep school in Utah. Kansas standout Darryn Peterson is the projected second overall pick … Blessings and farewell to Bulls television analyst and three-time NBA champion Stacey King, who passed away suddenly during the week at 59. King became a delightful and entertaining analyst after his playing career, making Chicago games worth watching even during difficult times in recent years. King was a decorated college player at Oklahoma, leading the Sooners to the national championship game in 1988 before helping the Bulls win three consecutive titles (1991-93). Transitioning to an analyst role can be difficult for former players, but King’s adaptation was smooth, as he emerged as a popular figure with Bulls fans.

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