There’s no evidence that the Red Sox can turn this around, especially given the sad state of their offense
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — If the Red Sox had any delusions about where this season might go, the beginning of June is offering a cold splash of clarity.
Read more The man accused of killing a top Minnesota Democratic lawmaker and her husband is due to change plea
On Wednesday, the Sox completed an unwelcome return to Tropicana Field by suffering a 7-5 defeat. With the loss — which completed a three-game sweep — the Sox fell to 27-39, a mark from which only one team in history has ever recovered to reach the playoffs in a non-strike-shortened season.
That team was the 1914 Miracle Braves. Even given the blah state of the American League and the notion that a team can sneak into the playoffs by approaching .500, there are no evident glimpses of miracles on the horizon for the 2026 Red Sox, particularly given the lineup’s woes.
Though the Sox rallied for five runs against the underbelly of the Rays’ bullpen in the final two innings on Wednesday, they were overmatched in stunning fashion by Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen. The righthander struck out a career-high 13 in seven shutout innings, repeatedly getting hitters to chase his mix outside of the strike zone, taking aim at an oft-attacked Sox vulnerability.
In fairness, Rasmussen (6-2, 2.71) was fantastic, executing a diverse mix of hard stuff to precise locations. But Sox hitters chased 19 of the 48 pitches (40 percent) Rasmussen threw outside the strike zone, and didn’t make the adjustments to force him back into the zone even as they got second and third looks at him.
“We definitely went out of the zone a little much. We’ve got to rein that in,” said interim manager Chad Tracy. “It’s easier said than done, but the guys are talking about [the needed adjustment].”
The result of their inability to adjust against Rasmussen? Infamy.
According to Elias, the Red Sox became the first team ever to have its top three batters (Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu) go a combined 0 for 9 with nine strikeouts in their first three plate appearances.
Even though Rafaela hit a three-run homer against reliever Steven Matz, he wasn’t shying from the team’s poor performance.
“It wasn’t really a good day for us,” he acknowledged.
Wednesday’s free-swinging approach didn’t occur in isolation. The Sox have a 35 percent chase rate in June, continuing a steady uptick. They had a 31 percent chase rate in March/April and a 32 percent mark in May.
The combination of a hyperaggressive approach and a lack of power has left the Sox’ offense sputtering. At the time that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow fired manager Alex Cora and much of the coaching staff, the Sox were averaging 4.1 runs while posting a .233/.313/.354 line in 27 games. In 39 games since, the Sox are averaging 3.7 runs while hitting .250/.310/.391.
Read more Red Sox rally but can’t avoid being swept by the Rays
The shape of the struggle has changed (more hits, fewer walks) since the shakeup. The size of it hasn’t.
Views of the state of the offense from a cross-section of rival evaluators are unflattering.
“Punchless.”
“I can’t believe they are content going with so many [Triple-A] players — utility infielders — at the bottom of the lineup.”
“Lot of guys on the team who satisfy the model but are role players who are being overexposed.”
“I’m still confused on the Red Sox roster construction and truthfully how they thought it would turn out any different than it has. The holes that were there at the start of the season are still there.”
With a lineup that entered the year with questions about its power potential and has seen a further erosion of thump by the absences of Roman Anthony (still not swinging a bat more than a month since he suffered his ring finger/wrist injury) and Trevor Story (likely out until at least August), the Sox are unlikely to improve even to league-average levels without drastically improved approaches.
The Sox are aware of the issue and working behind the scenes to help their hitters train to make better decisions about which pitches to attack and which to ignore. In certain cases, they’ve seen progress, as with Rafaela in May. (He’s experienced regression this month, however, with a 57 percent chase rate prior to Wednesday that ranked as the highest in baseball.)
“Improving the swing decisions, it’s always positive. If we chase less on an individual and group basis, it’s only going to improve performance. Regardless of how good your swing decisions are, they can always be better,” said hitting coach John Soteropulos. “It’s definitely something we can improve on, among other things.”
But the Sox are so far underwater that it’s hard to see how a turnaround can come quickly enough or at a scale that would allow them to surge past the eight teams that stand between them and the third wild-card spot. Less than halfway through the season, a team that entered the year proclaiming ambitions of competing for the division title and a championship is nearing a grim point of no return — and might have already passed it.
Post Comment