Platner is poised to win Democrats’ Senate nomination in Maine — but Tuesday’s primary is still a test

BANGOR, Maine — For populist insurgent Graham Platner, Maine’s Senate primary election had been shaping up as a coronation.

All of a sudden, it’s looking more like a test.

When Maine Democrats’ ballots are counted on Tuesday, Platner remains all but certain to become their nominee to take on Republican Senator Susan Collins, given that his top rival, Governor Janet Mills, suspended her campaign in April.

But after the events of the last two weeks, during which Platner faced fresh damaging allegations about his past conduct, the primary contest is now serving as a potentially revealing data point for how effectively he is weathering the scrutiny and consolidating support.

Mills remains on the primary ballot — a fact she has reminded Democratic voters of in recent days — as does a third candidate, David Costello, who has been actively campaigning but has not picked up remotely as much traction as Platner. Some Maine Democrats have said they still intend to vote for Mills even though her campaign has been inactive.

The question now is how many primary voters actually cast a ballot for someone other than Platner, and the answer may well shape the early contours of a Senate race with massive implications for the balance of power in Washington and the direction of both parties.

On Monday, as they gathered at election eve events for Maine’s Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls, Platner supporters expressed confidence that the ground had not totally shifted underneath his campaign in the final stretch of the primary.

Sarah Nichols, the former mayor of Bangor, told the Globe she believed only a small number of Democrats would cast a protest vote for Mills who were not supporting her campaign to begin with.

“I haven’t seen anywhere he’s losing people in the way I thought might happen,” she said, as she attended an election eve cookout for governor candidate Troy Jackson, a close ally of Platner, overlooking the Penobscot River.

If Platner notches 75 to 80 percent support in Tuesday’s primary, “I’d feel really confident,” Nichols said. “But it’s hard to really know.”

Later that evening, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows rallied with supporters in Ellsworth, where many locals know Platner and his family. (His mother runs a popular restaurant nearby.)

Among that crowd, there was anger and frustration over the increasing national frenzy of coverage and attention on Platner, as well as a sense that it was not capturing the realities of his support on the ground.

“The national discourse is bonkers,” said Shayna Nickerson, a teacher from nearby Hancock, who is supporting Platner. “We know who he is and who he’s not.”

Her husband, Michael, also a teacher, believes there’s been a backlash that has mobilized even more support for Platner. “People are like, the outrage feels artificial,” he said.

Among Platner supporters, there is tenuous hope that, given the overwhelming likelihood that Platner is the Democrats’ nominee following the primary election, the party will rally around him as the general election contest begins in earnest.

Meanwhile, national Republicans are increasingly bullish that Platner’s baggage means that Collins can defy midterm headwinds and pull out a victory, preserving GOP hopes for keeping the Senate majority. Democrats see Maine as a must-win state, given Collins is the only GOP senator up for reelection this year in a state President Trump lost in 2024.

But the past two weeks have resurfaced some of the intraparty fissures of a Democratic primary race that had effectively been over since April.

Once Mills dropped out, Platner was pollingstrong and working to consolidate support in the party. He waded into the competitive Maine governor primary, testing his growing political cred by backing three of the five Democratic contenders in the state’s ranked choice system.

Then, on May 30, the Wall Street Journal reported that in the campaign’s early days, Platner’s wife, Amy Gertner, notified a staffer that she had found explicit texts on his phone shortly after they were married in late 2023.

They had worked on their marriage in counseling, but the report landed differently than previous reports on his past inflammatory social media comments. Suddenly Platner was answering tough questions about recent conduct, a period where he’d supposedly settled down and healed, instead of details from his military or post-military years.

Then, the New York Times reported last Thursday that several of Platner’s ex-girlfriends alleged disturbing behavior, primarily Lyndsey Fifield, a Virginia conservative activist who dated him over a decade ago. She told the paper that he once grabbed her, shoved her into a room, and refused to let her leave, among other incidents.

Platner denied that he was ever physically violent with any romantic partner, while acknowledging he had, in the past, not been a good boyfriend. His campaign seemed to survive the latest onslaught of attention around the stories. On Friday, Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, kept his plans to rally with Platner in Bar Harbor. They were joined by Jackson and congressional candidate Matt Dunlap.

But soon, every major Democrat who’d aligned with Platner was being asked about the reports, and not everyone pushed back against the stories. Gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree said Platner’s accusers “were very brave to speak up” and said “they deserve to be heard,” while saying only Platner could make the case to Maine voters to still earn their support. (Pingree is part of a ranked-choice voting alliance with Jackson and Pingree that Platner has backed.)

After the initial Journal report, Mills emerged, telling the Portland Press Herald that while she had suspended her campaign, she remained on the primary ballot. Some Democrats planned to vote for her; state Representative Cassie Julia, for instance, told the Globe last week that while she didn’t have a “beef” with Platner, she would vote for Mills on Tuesday.

“My plan is to vote for Janet Mills because she’s on the ballot and our votes for her still count,” Julia said.

Last week, unnamed sources close to the governor told news outlets that Maine Democrats were privately reaching out to her to encourage her to get back into the race. But Mills did not, making the whole situation that much more unsettled.

On Monday, Mills traveled to Boston for a memorial for former representative Barney Frank. Asked by the Globe if she was thinking about how she might perform in Tuesday’s election, Mills said, “I’m not going to comment on that,” as she left the service.

Mills entered the primary last year, months after Platner and with the full backing of the Senate Democratic leadership in Washington — a move that felt like an unwanted intervention to somein Maine. When she exited the race amid lackluster fund-raising andenergy around the campaign, Mills did not endorse Platner or mention him at all in her statements announcing the news. She insisted she only suspended her campaign because she lacked the financial resources to continue.

Given that history, some Maine Democrats were confused and frustrated that Mills would position herself as an alternative to primary voters in the wake of the most recent Platner stories.

But even if Mills did reenter the race, it’s likely too late. Maine voters have been permitted to mail in or drop off their ballots starting in early May. Last week, the final week of early voting, state data showed that 35,000 people had already voted, with nearly three-quarters casting Democratic ballots.

Maine’s system of ranked choice voting is expected to make for a long week of tabulation to determine the winner of the contested Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries. But it’s likely the picture of the Democratic Senate primary will be more clear by late Tuesday night.

Platner’s core supporters are already eager to move on to the next fight. When negative stories come out about him, “it hurts us all,” said MJ Schepers, of Bar Harbor, who said she has known Platner’s mother for 20 years.

“And it makes us give him more money.”

Kelly Garrity of the Globe staff contributed to this report.