Will Tarik Skubal stay in Detroit or go? That’s the top storyline heading into Monday’s trade deadline.
The trade deadline hits at 6 p.m. Monday. Twenty-four teams went into the weekend either holding a postseason spot or within five games of one.
So here are some storylines to watch as the deadline approaches.
▪ Tarik Skubal on the move: It’s not often a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner gets put on the market, but Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris will not make the same mistake the Angels did with Shohei Ohtani and get only a draft pick when he leaves as a free agent.
Skubal is the biggest name on the midseason trade market in several years. Jahmai Jones played parts of two seasons in Detroit before he was traded to the Red Sox on July 14. He said the situation was roiling the Tigers.
“Unbelievable talent and a better person,” Jones said of Skubal. “For a guy like him, drafted by Detroit, home-grown, has only known Detroit, that decision is looming over everybody, including the front office … I think everyone [there] is walking on eggshells.
“Whether they decide to keep him or trade him, I don’t think everybody is going to be happy.”
It’s a situation similar to when the Red Sox couldn’t make a deal with Jon Lester during the 2014 season and sent him to the Athletics with Jonny Gomes at the deadline for Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick.
For a win-now team like the Dodgers, Skubal makes sense. But the Brewers and Rays could see the lefty as worth the cost in prospects to finally win a World Series.
The Tigers scratched Casey Mize from his start on Friday and are set to trade him, too. The righthander has a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts this year, and a 3.23 ERA in seven since returning from an adductor issue. Credit to Harris for picking a direction.
▪ The free agency class for 2027: For position players, it’s dreadful. Randy Arozarena, Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm, Paul Goldschmidt (who turns 39 in September), Ryan Jeffers, and Seiya Suzuki top the list.
Ronald Acuña Jr. and William Contreras have team options that are highly likely to get picked up. Bo Bichette has a $42 million player option that he would be wise to exercise unless he wants out of the Mets’ mess.
For teams in need of offense, now is the time to act. Because …
▪ The labor war is coming: Commissioner Rob Manfred has said the league will lock the players out when the collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1. That means no transactions until a new CBA is made.
For teams with obvious lineup holes, it would probably be better to fill those now instead of trying to make deals during what will be a frenzied period after the new CBA is ratified. Given the rancor between the league and the players, the best outcome could be an abbreviated spring training and a rush into the season.
▪ Where the Red Sox stand: Curtis Mead’s ill-timed injury means they still need a righthanded hitter, preferably an infielder or a designated hitter type. The Sox have been particularly active discussing shortstops.
They also could improve the bullpen, especially with a lefthander. As Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle stack up innings and get into unexplored territory, some sort of depth starter type would make a lot of sense, too.
SHARP DEMISE
Mayer’s value has dropped since debut
Marcelo Mayer’s debut with the Red Sox on May 24 last season was treated like a coronation. There were photos of him carrying his equipment bag out of Polar Park in Worcester, followed by breathless updates about him arriving at Fenway Park.
He has since hit .223 with a .625 OPS and struck out 85 times over 114 games and 364 plate appearances. Defensive metrics show Mayer to be a slightly above-average second baseman and below average when he plays shortstop.
Yet you still see his name mentioned as a trade chip because he was the fourth pick of the 2021 draft and is only 23.
But counting games at all levels, Mayer has averaged only 81 games a season since 2022, topping out at 91 in 2022. That could change if he returns this season, but Mayer needs to shake the label of not being able to stay on the field.
Remember back in spring training when Alex Cora wouldn’t say Mayer had made the team until the final few days of camp? The former manager was criticized in some circles for being too tough on Mayer. Turns out he was on to something, and the Sox have dedicated much of their trade deadline work to finding a shortstop.
If Mayer has any trade value at this stage, it would be as a throw-in.
The ’21 draft was a mess. Caleb Durbin, a 14th-round pick, has been worth more bWAR than all but six position players taken ahead of him.
Roman Anthony made his debut 16 days after Mayer, and the hype was doubled. He has been a solid offensive player since, hitting .273 with an .804 OPS. But Anthony has played only 101 of a possible 204 games since that debut because of oblique and wrist injuries.
He has started swinging at balls off a tee. That’s the first of several steps needed before he returns, assuming he does.
A few other observations on the Red Sox:
▪ Chad Tracy, Kevin Cash, and Will Venable are the favorites for American League manager of the year, per the Vegas sports books. The last-to-first White Sox have been a great story, but if Tracy guides Boston to a postseason berth after being 32-46 on June 24, how does he not win?
The Sox had 24 sacrifices through 108 games — 22 of them since Tracy became manager. Only four other teams have more this season. It’s the most for the Sox since they had 30 in 2015.
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That the Sox would turn to small ball to help save a lost season is not something anybody could have expected.
▪ The Sox have a favorable schedule the rest of the season. Starting Tuesday, they have 27 home games and 24 road games. Only three of the road games — at Texas Sept. 15-17 — are out of the Eastern time zone.
These days, most every team is at least a wild card contender. But 15 of their last 51 games are against the Angels, Athletics, Giants, Marlins, and Royals.
▪ The Sox haven’t made too many mistakes with pitchers the last few years, but they sure got it wrong with Sean Newcomb.
The lefthander from Middleboro has a 2.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 111 innings and 76 games with the Athletics and White Sox since the Sox designated him for assignment on May 24, 2025.
Newcomb pitched well for the Sox in 12 games after being signed as a minor league free agent and making the team out of spring training. But he was let go to make a roster spot for Luis Guerrero, who’s now pitching poorly for the Rays in Triple-A.
▪ Lou Merloni and Orel Hershiser join Jason Benetti for the Sox-Dodgers game on NBC on Sunday night. Clayton Kershaw will be part of the broadcast, too.
Merloni is carving out a solid television career after departing the toxic world of sports talk radio. He puts in the time, too, working the clubhouse before games and talking to the coaches quite a bit.
▪ Johnny Damon is among the players scheduled to attend Yankees Old-Timers Day on Aug. 8. Damon has split his allegiances between the Sox and Yankees in retirement. He played four seasons for each team.
▪ Jeff, a reader from Quincy who now lives in Atlanta, emailed with a nice story. His 16-year-old son, Liam, has Hunter Syndrome and has some symptoms similar to autism.
Liam is a big fan of former Sox infielder Bobby Dalbec. Coincidentally, Jeff attended a business dinner a few months ago and met somebody friendly with Dalbec’s parents.
They got to talking about Liam, and last week a package arrived with a No. 29 Yomiuri Giants jersey signed by Dalbec and a photo of him holding the jersey. Liam was thrilled.
Dalbec is playing in Japan this season and has a team-high 17 homers.
ETC.
Who is the next Sox Hall of Famer?
Hall of Famers are introduced in random order before the induction ceremony every year, and David Ortiz happened to be first last Sunday when Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, and Jeff Kent were honored.
It raised a thought: Who will be the next former Red Sox player voted into Cooperstown?
Prepare for a long wait. Dustin Pedroia has been on the ballot since 2025 and reached 20.7 percent this year. His road to the Hall could be similar to that of Jones. He debuted with only 7.9 percent, barely clearing the 5 percent to stay on the ballot, then worked his way up over the next eight elections before finally getting in this year.
Lester debuts next year and has solid credentials with 200 regular-season wins and career-long postseason excellence. But Lester’s 43.5 bWAR is well short of the last three starting pitchers voted in: CC Sabathia (62.3), Roy Halladay (64.2), and Mike Mussina (82.8). They are the only starters voted in by the BBWAA since 2015.
David Price will be up in 2028, but his numbers are below Lester’s.
From there, it’s waiting to see when Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, and Kyle Schwarber retire. Betts is a lock, and Sale is moving in that direction thanks to his resurgence with the Braves.
At 37, Sale is 12-6 with a 2.08 ERA through 20 starts. Since 1950, only 41-year-old Roger Clemens (2005) and 39-year-old Justin Verlander (2022) have lower ERAs through 20 starts at age 37 or older.
Schwarber, who played 41 games for the Sox in 2021, is closing in on 400 home runs and 1,000 RBIs. But his career WAR is a scant 22.2 because he’s been largely a designated hitter.
Former Sox closers Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel will be interesting cases as they’re third and fifth, respectively, in career saves. Aroldis Chapman looks more like a sure thing with each passing month. He’s closing in on 400 saves and has averaged 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings in his career.
Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers still have years left to play. Alex Bregman, too. Their Cooperstown chances are to be determined, but Bogaerts had faded as a member of the Padres.
The best hope for a Red Sox player at this point could be Dwight Evans getting another look by the Contemporary Era committee down the road after he was passed over last winter. But that is uncertain.
Extra bases
For a player who has declined sharply over the last two seasons, Bryce Harper sure has a lot to say about how other people are doing their jobs. “I think we need some help [at the trade deadline],” Harper said on Tuesday. “I think we’ve proved pretty much all year we’ve done a pretty good job. But anytime you can get some help in here and some reinforcements, it helps.” It’s a given that Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will do everything he can to improve the roster. That’s how he has operated for decades. Meanwhile, Harper has hit .169 with a .630 OPS this month, and interim manager Don Mattingly didn’t appreciate the comments. “Guys want to be GMs without a real understanding of where the organization is, exactly where this thing goes. Not only this year, but moving forward,” he said. “Players like being GMs and making calls and spending other people’s money. So I just let it go at that. I mean, Dave’s been doing this a while. He’s never really backed away from trying to get guys. We’re trying to get better.” Mattingly’s son, Preston, is Philadelphia’s general manager and works closely with Dombrowski … Do the Dodgers have a Shohei Ohtani issue? Probably not, but he has not pitched since July 3 because of a biceps issue and a sore left knee. Ohtani has stayed in the lineup as the designated hitter and has an .844 OPS this month. That’s great for most players, but he ended June with a .954 OPS. Ohtani skipped the All-Star Game to get an injection in his knee, which is a bigger problem than the biceps. You have to wonder if the Dodgers will shut Ohtani down from hitting for a few days at some point to ensure he will be as healthy as possible for the start of the postseason. Los Angeles has the luxury of bringing back Ohtani, Blake Snell (last pitched on May 9), and Tyler Glasnow (last pitched on May 6) as carefully as they can … José Ramírez was out from June 14 to July 21 after breaking the hamate bone in his left hand. The Guardians managed to stay afloat with a 15-15 record without their best player, as Gabriel Arias and Daniel Schneeman handled third base. Cleveland entered the weekend only two games out of first place in the AL Central … Sorry to make you feel old, but Andrew Benintendi hit 10 years of service time last week … At 25, Cam Schlittler is on track to be the youngest Cy Young Award winner in the American League over a full season since Snell was 25 when he won in 2018 for the Rays. The Walpole native and former Northeastern hurler leads the league in earned run average (2.04), bWAR (4.8), innings (136⅔), and is third in strikeouts (165). He is 8-2 with a 1.10 ERA in 14 starts on the road … Keith Foulke is managing the Boston Hunters of the new Women’s Pro Baseball League. The league started its season on Saturday and will run through Sept. 6. The four teams will play all games at Robin Roberts Stadium in Springfield, Ill. Foulke’s roster includes catcher Beth Greenwood of Amherst, N.H. She has been with the US women’s national team program since 2018 and coached in the Phillies organization from 2023-24 … Happy birthday to Tom Burgmeier, who is 83. The lefthanded reliever appeared in 213 games for the Red Sox from 1978-82, part of a 17-year career. Burgmeier signed with the Sox as a free agent and rewarded the team with a 2.72 ERA and 40 saves. Burgmeier was an All-Star in 1980 but did not appear in the game as the American League used only five pitchers. Burgmeier actually once played the outfield for the Sox. On Aug. 3, 1980, Burgmeier got two outs in the ninth inning, then was moved to left field by manager Don Zimmer in place of Jim Rice. Righthander Skip Lockwood came in to face righthanded-hitting Rangers shortstop Dave Roberts — no, not that Dave Roberts — and retired him on a foul popup. “And the madness was over,” wrote Peter Gammons in the Globe of the 6-4 Sox win. After he retired as a player, Burgmeier worked as a pitching coach until 2009.
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