President Trump’s job approval rating continues to slip in New Hampshire
President Trump’s job approval rating is continuing to slip in New Hampshire, which could spell trouble for Republican candidates in the midterm elections just over three months away.
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The latest data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, released Wednesday, shows 37 percent of Granite Staters expressed approval of Trump’s performance, while 62 percent expressed disapproval. Although most Republicans still support him, most independents don’t, and it’s very rare to find a Democrat who does.
Since last summer, Trump’s net approval rating in New Hampshire has fallen 16 percentage points, from negative 9 points in August 2025 to negative 25 points in July 2026, amid his unpopular war in Iran.
Dante Scala, a UNH political science professor, said the latest numbers illustrate the challenging arithmetic for GOP contenders seeking federal office in New Hampshire.
Someone like John E. Sununu or Anthony DiLorenzo — whom Trump has endorsed in New Hampshire’s races for the US Senate and First Congressional District, respectively — can likely count on Trump backers to deliver a baseline of electoral support, Scala said. But can they also win over enough of Trump’s critics and skeptics to get to 50 percent on Election Day?
“That’s a heavy lift, I think, for any Republican candidate to be thinking about,” Scala said. “That’s just a lot to overcome.”
Sununu is leading Scott Brown in the GOP primary for US Senate. The winner of their Sept. 8 showdown will advance to the Nov. 3 general election. Chris Pappas remains the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, while his top opponent, Karishma Manzur, has gained ground in recent months.
DiLorenzo is campaigning for the House seat that Pappas currently holds. He’s up against Hollie Noveletsky and Brian Cole in the GOP primary. Meanwhile, those seeking the Democratic nomination include Stefany Shaheen, Maura Sullivan, Christian Urrutia, Carleigh Beriont, Heath Howard, and Sarah Chadzynski.
Scala said Shaheen and Sullivan are clearly viable candidates, as evidenced by their polling, fund-raising, and more. Still, a more progressive alternative could find a burst of momentum in the final weeks of this race, he said, noting that Urrutia has accumulated a notable sum in campaign cash, Beriont has shown some signs of grassroots strength, and Howard has embraced the Democratic Socialist label.
Scala said the survey data suggest self-described progressives and socialists represent a significant chunk of the Democratic electorate in New Hampshire, and the energy that has propelled leftist candidates elsewhere could become a factor here as well.
Scala said he suspects Manzur, a progressive, won’t gain enough traction to win the Democratic nomination. But might she perform better in her primary against Pappas than Brown does in his against Sununu?
“That, I wonder about,” Scala said.
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