Not hyperbole to say Red Sox’ next 17 games affect not only this season but the franchise’s future
PHILADELPHIA — In a season of whiplash-inducing extremes, the Red Sox now face a pivotal 17-game stretch that could have significant sway over not only this season but the future of the organization.
Sound like hyperbole? It shouldn’t.
After all, it took just 16 games leading up to the All-Star break for the Sox to go from a hapless 32-46 record and seemingly no realistic hopes of the postseason to a 46-48 mark that has them just a half-game behind the Mariners and Twins for the final wild card spot. in the American League. FanGraphs gives the Sox a 40.2 percent shot at the postseason — the sixth-highest odds of any team in the AL.
The sentiment surrounding the team has changed drastically.
“When you’re winning,” said All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman with a laugh while speaking through a translator, “everything is good.”
This is the reality of not only the Red Sox but the AL in 2026. It’s a Slip ‘N Slide league, where it’s possible to glide past several colliding, bunched-in-the-middle competitors to move rapidly into the front or fall to the back of the pack.
For most of June, a selloff seemed almost unavoidable with the team anchored in last place. Questions about the job security of chief baseball officer Craig Breslow seemed to grow louder each day.
But after the 14-2 stretch that included nine straight road wins to enter the break, the expectation that the Red Sox would trade veterans in search of players who could improve the team’s long-term outlook has been reframed. At this point, it’s hard to imagine the team doing anything to hurt its 2026 chances.
“I don’t know if it changes the conversation, but I do think that [the recent run] should lower the amount of conversation around the trade deadline and us selling,” said Chapman.
Added interim bench coach José David Flores: “Definitely that [run] changed the perspective of how the front office now sees things. Obviously, they see how our team is playing. [But] obviously there’s still time before the deadline. So we’ll see.”
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The second observation is a critical one.
The Sox face a critical stretch of 17 games coming out of the All-Star break and leading into the Aug. 3 trade deadline, beginning with a four-game series against the AL East-leading Rays, followed by divisional series against the Orioles and Blue Jays to complete the 10-game homestand, and then a West Coast swing that features four games against the Athletics and three vs. the Dodgers.
Recent weeks underscore how drastically the team’s performance in the next 17 games — just over 10 percent of the season — can transform the team’s outlook … and thus its deadline moves … and thus the balance of this year vs. the future … and thus, perhaps, Breslow’s future in the organization.
The Red Sox have made a habit in recent years of poor starts coming out of the break: A 1-5 skid last year against the Cubs and Phillies from which they needed to recover quickly in order to legitimize their contention push; a 2-7 sputter in 2024 that stalled a strong early-July run; and a 9-11 crabwalk after the break in 2023 that led to organizational indecisiveness in a do-nothing deadline.
Mindful of that history, the Sox sent their players into the break with homework.
“We made sure the last day before the break, we talked to the players about the importance of at least doing something daily, just to keep the same tempo that we had this last couple of series [when] we’ve played some really good baseball,” said Flores. “Obviously, after the break, we have three important series coming up against division teams. It’s extremely important that we keep the same rhythm … so that hopefully, when they come back, we continue the same thing, because it’s been fun to watch.”
The players hope to do their part to influence the team’s decision by continuing the excellent play that allowed them to retreat from the edge of a cliff at the start of the month — something that could create feedback loops if it catalyzes an effort by the front office to add reinforcements by the trade deadline.
“I believe [Breslow] and everybody in the front office will go out there and get what they think we’re missing,” said All-Star center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. “Personally, I believe in the whole group and I believe in what we have. Of course we want everybody to stay together at the trade deadline. Winning ballgames, that will mean a lot.”
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