Meet Bedford’s Ryan Paganetti, a former NFL coach bringing analytics from the headset to the masses
Coaching in the NFL can have its glamorous side — like, say, when you grew up a Patriots fan and are part of a staff that beats Bill Belichick and the Patriots to win the first Lombardi Trophy for Philadelphia.
“It was a surreal experience for me,” said Ryan Paganetti, a Bedford native and former running back at Belmont Hill School and Dartmouth.
Coaching can also be a grind, with 110-hour work weeks for a Raiders team that finished 3-14.
“I’d be at work for 15 hours, and the coaches would make fun of me for leaving early,” Paganetti said of last season.
After 10 years of coaching defense and running analytics for Doug Pederson and Pete Carroll — the guy on the headset who says when to go for it on fourth down, 2-point conversions, and so on — Paganetti is sharing his insight with the masses.
Paganetti, 35, has been posting some chin-stroking data and trends since creating an X account, @RyanPaganetti, in recent weeks as part of his career switch to media and consulting.
For instance, did you know that Greg Roman, a senior offensive assistant for the Giants but formerly the Ravens’ offensive coordinator, has called a run on second-and-short on 135 of his last 136 attempts? The one pass play resulted in a sack for the Patriots’ Matthew Judon in Week 3 of 2022.
Or that Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell in 2025 called the highest percentage of runs on second down following a first-down incompletion (86.7 percent) of any coach in the last 15 years? That all 70 of Josh Allen’s quarterback sneaks have gone left? That only 13 percent of punts in 2025 came from opponents’ territory, the lowest in NFL history?
“Part of my inspiration to get into the league was just New England being ahead of everybody in the dynasty and having so much success, and the idea they were always outsmarting people,” Paganetti said.
Some of his best insight so far has revolved around Mike Vrabel and his decision-making in the second half of the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks.
“Mike Vrabel is largely commended for being on top of those situational moments,” Paganetti said of the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year. “But he made a few decisions that were unusual and not really supported by analytics and were out of character.”
The first one came in the third quarter, when Vrabel punted on fourth and 1 from his own 41 with the Patriots trailing, 12-0. The Patriots had gained 9 yards on first down, but then went run (stuffed), pass (incomplete), punt.
The punt was questionable enough, but the pass on third down was even worse.
“If you knew you were going to punt, you should’ve been much more likely to run on third down,” Paganetti said. “Analytics had a consensus that that fourth down punt was a mistake, and I kind of contrast that with when the Eagles played the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2018. We also faced a fourth and 1 in a very similar part of the field, our own 44-45 yard line, we were down by 1. We went for it, completed a pass, go down the field and score.”
And for Paganetti, “one of the strangest decisions of the Super Bowl that did not get enough attention” came with 12:27 left in the fourth quarter. The Patriots kicked an extra point to make the score 19-7, instead of going for 2 and trying to cut the deficit to 11.
“This situation had come up 40 times before … 39 of those 40 teams went for two. New England kicked here,” Paganetti posted.
“I tried to find any exotic win probability rationale that would justify doing that, and couldn’t,” he added. “I think the average TV viewer can conclude there may have been a mistake there.”
Vrabel was not asked about this decision after the game or in the days after the Super Bowl. But it wasn’t a trivial one, even in a 29-13 loss.
The Patriots got the ball back with 10:40 left in the fourth quarter — plenty of time to make up an 11-point deficit with a touchdown, 2-point conversion, and field goal. Instead, needing two touchdowns, they went hurry-up and Drake Maye threw a panic interception.
“They get the ball back when they’re down 12, and they’re going up-tempo and kind of forcing things, and you don’t necessarily have to be in that demeanor if you’re down by 11,” Paganetti said.
His insights have already created a small firestorm — Vikings fans, for instance, now have ammo that O’Connell didn’t trust J.J. McCarthy last year. Paganetti said he’s just taking publicly available data and hoping to give fans different perspectives from someone with a decade of experience in NFL analytics.
“It’s just going to be presenting the data and giving my insight on it, but I imagine it’s going to be a lightning rod for fans,” Paganetti said. “Just being on the headset, being in game plan meetings, I have a unique perspective of not only strictly numbers but also the experience, being involved in some of these moments, and I hope fans find it insightful.”
ON THE BALL
Kickers crush it, and QBs sneak it
A few other nuggets from an interesting chat with Paganetti, who coached defense and analytics for the Eagles from 2015-21, then analytics for the Jaguars (2022-25) and Raiders (2025-26):
⋅ The increased strength of NFL kicking legs, combined with new K-ball rules and the touchback now coming out to the 35, have drastically altered end-of-half and game situations.
Paganetti said Trackman devices show that kickers being able to prepare their own K-balls during the week added 4-6 yards on their max distance. Jaguars kicker Cam Little set an NFL record last year with a 68-yarder, and hit from 70 in the preseason.
“In 2000, there was one 55-yard field goal the entire season. This last year [had] 74,” Paganetti said. “It’s just a totally different sport now, so you end up in these end-of-half situations now where you have to essentially play keep-away. Now when there’s 20 seconds left, and the touchback is the 35, they can easily get into a field-goal attempt situation.”
Teams are realizing that securing the final possession of the half is more important than ever. Paganetti said few coaches were better at it than Belichick.
“I got to talk to [Tom] Brady a handful of times this last year in Vegas, and he was so geeked up about that,” Paganetti said. “I had all these studies that Belichick and the Patriots were grinding clock more than anyone, trying to time it up for the last possession of the second quarter. That stretch is more important than ever because of the field goal change and combination with touchback.”
⋅ The QB sneak has overtaken the NFL, not just in Philadelphia. In 2016, there were 70 sneaks all season, and last year there were 340, with only about 30 by Jalen Hurts. Paganetti said he helped convince Pederson to call more QB sneaks in 2017 based on watching Brady do it.
“I was like, ‘This is crazy, it’s the best play in the sport, why are we not doing this?’ ” he said. “Brady’s QB sneaks were conditioned on there being an open ‘A’ gap. QB sneaks now, a vast majority are appearing when defenses are selling out to stop it, and you just do it anyways.”
Paganetti expects Justin Fields to have a short-yardage role all season for the Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes returning from a torn ACL. And that Tim Tebow, an offseason member of the Eagles in 2015, would have been more useful in today’s NFL.
“I think somebody would draft him now just for the short-yardage stuff,” Paganetti said.
⋅ Though the Raiders went 3-14 last year, they started the season with a 20-13 win in New England.
“Part of the reason we beat the Patriots is we intentionally showed not one single play we were going to run in the preseason,” Paganetti said. “And we came out, they didn’t have [Christian] Gonzalez, and we were kind of going bombs away.”
Though last season was a disaster, Paganetti is proud that Pete Carroll finished No. 1 among head coaches in fourth-down decision making, according to the analytics. Carroll was typically on the other end of the rankings during his Seahawks tenure.
“He said, ‘Keep reminding me during the games, because we have to finish first in something,’ ” Paganetti said. “I thought I was going to have to battle him more than I did. He said the last year sitting out, he was so shocked how often teams are going for fourth and 1 and 2. I explained some of the data and rationale, and he said, ‘I don’t know why I didn’t have that stuff in Seattle.’ ”
ETC.
Bringing home the Lombardi Trophy
Paganetti was on the Eagles’ defensive coaching staff that defeated the Patriots, 41-33, in Super Bowl LII. Of course, the Patriots racked up 613 total yards, with 505 by Brady.
“There were stretches of that game where we were so out of sorts defensively from how methodical Brady had been,” Paganetti said. “In my entire career, there’s never been a game where we felt more hopeless. It honestly felt like they had every rule of our playbook on defense and knew exactly how to break it.
“That following offseason, we spent all this time repping all the plays they got us on in the Super Bowl. We didn’t think of these two guys doing crossers, or this and that. It was an unbelievable game plan from Josh McDaniels, and we couldn’t breathe a sigh of relief until the ball hit the ground with zero seconds left, given Brady’s deal, given the 28-3.
“I brought up on the headset in the fourth quarter, ‘Just so everybody knows, they have over 500 yards and zero punts, so we probably want to be extra aggressive if a fourth down comes up.’ The analytics don’t account for that.”
Of course, Malcolm Butler never played a defensive snap, Brandon Graham knocked the ball loose in the fourth quarter, and the Eagles emerged with the Lombardi Trophy.
World Cup grass
Now that the World Cup is wrapping up — the four remaining matches are in Dallas, Atlanta, Miami and New York (Jersey) — stadiums such as Gillette will begin ripping up the natural grass and re-installing their artificial turf despite objections from the NFL Players Association and the players themselves.
Few would argue that turf is easier on the players’ bodies than grass, but the NFL contends that the artificial surfaces don’t cause more non-contact, lower extremity injuries like torn ACLs and Achilles tendons.
The NFL and NFLPA collect injury data through a third-party company selected jointly.
“When we look at injury rate by surface type, grass vs. artificial, we see no statistical difference in that injury rate,” NFL field director Nick Pappas said in an interview earlier this summer. “Not just is the rate the same, but the breakdown in injury type is also split. It flip flops around where one year we’ll see more ACL injuries on artificial, next year we’ll see more ACLs on natural grass, and sometimes it’s split down the middle. The type of injury, whether it’s a high ankle sprain, Achilles, ACL, or MCL, those are all split very closely, each year flip flopping back and forth as to which one happens more. Which ultimately tells us, it’s just playing football, it’s not driven by surface type.”
The reality is that for NFL owners, artificial turf is better for the bottom line than natural grass. If the players want to force a change, they need to find something other than injury data.
New study
A study of nearly 20,000 NFL players by Mass General Brigham, Boston University, and the Concussion & CTE Foundation revealed last week that they were four times more likely to die of neurodegenerative disease than the general population. This despite NFL players having a lower overall mortality rate and being less likely to die from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and suicide.
The study comes in the wake of former Titans running back Chris Johnson, 39, announcing he has ALS.
“This is the clearest population-level evidence we have ever had that NFL players are dying due to neurodegenerative disease at real and measurably higher rates,” said co-author Dr. Daniel Daneshvar.
Extra points
Mike Evans might be turning 33 years old and entering his 13th NFL season, but the 49ers don’t think they signed an over-the-hill receiver. George Kittle told the New Heights podcast that he considers Evans the 49ers’ first “veteran” wide receiver since Emmanuel Sanders in 2019. “Just so savvy,” Kittle said. “Catches everything, runs great routes, gives great effort. I’m all-in on Mike Evans.” . . . According to Front Office Sports, two bidders have emerged to buy the Seahawks, and one group has familiar names — Aditya Mittal, a significant minority investor in Bill Chisholm’s Celtics ownership group, and former Celtics lead governor Wyc Grousbeck. The Seahawks could fetch anywhere from $9-11 billion, and the NFL requires the controlling owner to hold at least a 30 percent stake in the team . . . The NFL altered its offseason calendar for 2027 by pushing the NFL Combine back a week to March 1-8 and having it directly abut free agency. The negotiating window opens at noon on March 9, and free agency officially begins March 11, meaning next year’s Combine will probably be one big tampering fest . . . Allen wants to play flag football in the 2028 Olympics, calling it “a dream I’ve always had” and saying “I would sign up tomorrow to be on the team.” But Allen watched the NFL players get blown out at Brady’s Fanatics event this spring, and acknowledged that flag football is completely different from tackle. “I don’t know if they’d want me,” Allen said. “But I do think that if there is a potential space, I would love to do it.” . . . The Bills were going to turn the old Highmark Stadium into parking lots, but told the Buffalo News last week they’re now considering retail, dining, and mixed-use development next to the new stadium opening in September . . . The Patriots will be the only one of his former teams not permanently honoring legendary kicker Adam Vinatieri this year. Vinatieri will be one of five players inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in August, and the Colts announced last week that Vinatieri, who kicked for 14 seasons and won a Super Bowl, will be inducted into their Ring of Honor in Week 6 against the Titans. But Vinatieri will have to wait another year for the Patriots Hall of Fame after losing the fan vote to Rob Gronkowski.
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