Graham Platner has slight edge over Susan Collins in tight Maine Senate race, poll finds

Sen. Susan Collins and Graham Platner are locked in a neck-and-neck Senate contest in Maine, according to a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll, as voters weigh a desire for Democratic control of the Senate against Collins’ record and controversy around Platner’s past conduct.

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Platner leads the race by two percentage points among likely voters, capturing the support of 49%, compared with 47% for Collins. It is a slight advantage, but one that is considered too small for polls to measure reliably, and which could easily grow or shrink as campaigning ramps up.

An oysterman who has never held elected office, Platner, 41, rode a populist message to the Democratic nomination despite reports about offensive online posts, a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol and his treatment of women. But the poll found that he is failing to attract some voters who otherwise want to see Democrats take power in Washington.

Fifty-four percent of voters said they would like to see Democrats control the Senate next year, a notably higher percentage than the percent of respondents who said they supported Platner. In fact, Collins, the Republican, is winning 10% of voters who prefer Democratic control.

Platner has strong backing among Democrats and some of the party’s traditional constituencies, winning notable majorities of young, college-educated and Portland-area voters. A slight majority — 52% — of women say they support his bid.

While Collins, 73, is not broadly popular in the state — about as many voters view her positively as negatively — voters’ views of the senator remain largely unchanged since 2020, when she won reelection by 9 percentage points, outperforming President Donald Trump in the state. Likely voters view her more favorably than Trump by nearly 10 percentage points, and they said they appreciated her ability to bring federal resources to Maine.

Still, there are signs that Collins, who is running for a sixth term, may face some fresh liabilities. A majority of Mainers — including 57% of independent voters — said they thought she would be too supportive of Trump in the Senate. And even some of her own supporters worry that she is “too old” to be an effective senator, though those concerns are mirrored by anxieties among Democrats that Platner is “too inexperienced.”

Both parties see Maine as a linchpin of their battle for control of Congress. With Republicans holding 53 seats in the Senate, Democrats will have to defend all the seats they hold and flip four more to win control in November. The map is difficult for Democrats: Of all six Senate battleground states, Maine is the only one that voted against Trump in 2024.

The poll is the first high-quality survey of Maine voters conducted since Platner won the nomination. And it provided a snapshot of his standing after The New York Times published a report revealing that several women whom Platner had dated said that he had engaged in unsettling and, in one case, physically threatening behavior.

The race remains deeply unsettled. Twenty percent of Platner’s likely supporters said they were only “probably” going to vote for him. Sixteen percent of Collins’ supporters said the same.

Some voters described dissatisfaction with their options.

Joan Merriam, 79, a Democrat from Rockland, Maine, described the race as “a moral Catch-22.” Merriam, a retired teacher, said that she was unsettled by the reports about Platner’s conduct toward women, but that she also could not imagine voting for Collins.

“I’m holding my nose and voting for him,” she said of Platner. “She supports Trump way too much and doesn’t have a backbone.”

The steady drumbeat of controversies surrounding Platner’s campaign have raised concern among some Democrats that he could complicate their party’s path.

Majorities do not believe Platner has “good character” or the “right kind of moral values.” By contrast, 66% of likely voters say Collins has “good character,” and 61% describe her as having the “right kind of moral values.”

More likely voters view Platner as “too extreme,” with 47% saying the phrase fit him well, compared with 34% who said the same about Collins.

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Platner has been dogged by issues from his past since the early weeks of his candidacy, including revelations of explicit text messages he sent to women while he was married.

More than 90% of likely voters said they had heard about the various controversies. About 30% of Platner’s supporters said the reports had raised questions about whether they could support him.

Much of the contest may rest with female voters, who have made up a majority of the electorate in past Senate races in Maine.

Platner has sharply criticized Collins for supporting Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, part of the conservative Supreme Court majority that overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark ruling that had guaranteed a constitutional right to abortion for nearly half a century.

Platner’s support among female likely voters is seven percentage points lower than the share who said they would support the Democrat running for the House in their district. But he is still running ahead of the support the 2020 Democratic nominee for Senate, Sara Gideon, received from women in exit polls and a 2020 New York Times/Siena survey.

About 60% of likely voters who support Collins give a positive reason for their backing — either her politics or her personality — compared with just 36% of Platner’s voters who pointed to a positive attribute about their candidate.

Collins’ strongest positive, according to the poll, is that voters believe that she can deliver for the state, a theme she has stressed during the campaign. Likely voters think Collins would do better than Platner at bringing money and resources to Maine, 61% to 34%.

Platner has the edge, though, when it comes to being an independent voice — a key tenet of the state’s identity — and doing what’s best for ordinary Mainers.

“He cuts through the BS of political speech,” said Michael Bachand, 71, a retiree from Standish. “We have an opportunity for the first time in a long time to start a new movement for people.”

Much of Collins’ success will depend on whether she can outrun what is widely considered to be a challenging political environment for Republicans in Maine and across the country.

About 3 in 10 likely voters in Maine say they approve of how Trump has handled cost-of-living concerns, gas prices and the war in Iran. Just 27% of likely voters thought the recent agreement to end the war in Iran was a good deal.

Abdullah Haque, 45, of Bangor, said he disliked how Collins “snivels at Trump’s feet.” But he said he planned to vote for her because he was worried about his personal financial situation and believed she was better for the state’s economy.

“I care a lot about the local economy here,” said Haque, 45, an independent voter who works in healthcare administration. “I’m policy-driven. Outside of financial interests, I don’t like her.”

Collins has a history of defying expectations. In her 2020 Senate race, preelection polls suggested that she would lose the race by around 3 to 4 percentage points. She won by 9.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.