Savory matchups, high stakes in World Cup knockout rounds
How many Polymarket players had Cape Verde and Argentina meeting in the World Cup round of 32? Most folks figured that the Blue Sharks would be fortunate to get one point in their global debut.
But they picked up three with draws against Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia. Thus did a collection of volcanic islands whose population would fit into Buenos Aires half a dozen times over earn an encounter with the defending champions.
The expansion of the tournament from 32 to 48 teams proved a boon not only to newbies like the Cape Verdeans but also to countries who have customarily gone home after group play.
Canada, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina all advanced for the first time. Norway hadn’t survived since 1998, Egypt since 1934.
Despite the addition of 16 teams, there has been uncommon competitive balance across the 12 groups. Only France and Mexico had won all three of their preliminary matches headed into the final two, when Argentina was heavily favored to beat Jordan and become the third.
Other group winners stubbed their toes along the way. The Swiss drew with Qatar, Spain with Cape Verde, England with Ghana, Belgium with Egypt and Iran. And Germany was beaten by Ecuador. “That way, we’ll be out soon,” the newspaper Bild predicted sourly.
The Americans, sitting out nine starters for a meaningless match, lost to Turkey in the 98th minute. But they’d already clinched the top spot which got them a date with Bosnia and Herzegovina, the lowest-ranked of the 16 European qualifiers.
That’s also the lowest-ranked opponent that the US will have met in the second round. In 1994 it was Brazil, in 2002 Mexico, in 2010 Ghana, in 2014 Belgium. Last time it was the Netherlands.
So Wednesday’s encounter in Santa Clara is eminently winnable. After that the road grows steeper.
Belgium, which came out of third place to win Group G by beating New Zealand, 5-1, mastered the Yanks by three goals in their March tuneup in Atlanta. The Yanks’ next opponent likely would be former champion Spain, the European titlists, in the quarterfinals.
Still, they have a decidedly easier task in the round of 32 than do the Netherlands and Brazil. The Dutch, the best soccer-playing nation never to claim the Cup, will take on Morocco, which reached the semifinals four years ago.
That ordinarily would be a quarterfinal matchup. This time one of them won’t even get to the round of 16.
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The Netherlands, which drilled the Swedes, 5-1 and has tallied 10 goals so far, went out to Argentina on penalties in the 2022 quarterfinals. The Moroccans knocked out Spain and Portugal that year before falling to France .
Whoever survives this time gets an easier matchup in the next round with either Canada or South Africa.
The Brazilians, who topped their group on goal differential after drawing with the Moroccans, get the Japanese, who placed second to the Dutch after drawing with them and Sweden.
Nobody wants to see Nippon on the other side of the ball. The Samurai Blue, whose players perform all across Europe mostly in the Netherlands and Germany, are beyond tenacious.
Four years ago they beat Spain and Germany in group play then took Croatia to penalty kicks in the second round. This time Japan rallied twice against the Dutch to extract a draw in the 88th minute.
The Brazilians, with Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha, are more fearsome up front. But they’ll still need to work for 90 minutes and more to win Monday’s match.
The French, who’ve been the most impressive bunch so far with the killer duo of Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele (eight combined goals and counting), will get a test from the Swedes. After that loom the Germans, provided that the Mannschaft gets past Paraguay.
The knockout rounds are a simpler proposition than group play. No playing for strategic draws. No goal-differential arithmetic. No resting your regulars for the third match. You win or you go home.
Any opponent which made it past a couple of years of Cup qualifying matches has a chance of making mischief simply by taking the field.
That’s what makes the Cape Verde-Argentina matchup enthralling. The Blue Sharks, who were 1,000-1 longshots when the tournament began, have been playing with house money since the beginning.
If Argentina loses to them it’ll be the biggest upset in soccer history and a cause for national mourning. Not to mention a hefty Polymarket payout.
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