Ranking World Cup favorites: Why these eight teams can win it all (and why they won’t)

The World Cup kicks off on June 11, with 48 teams vying for the biggest prize in international soccer.

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Not every team has a strong chance to win it all, though. Here are eight favorites with the best chance to win, with a look at why each could lift the World Cup — and what might hold them back.

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World Cup titles: 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002

Key player: Vinicius Jr., forward

Why they’ll win it: At the end of the day, it’s Brazil. The jersey has five stars for a reason; no country has ever been more successful on soccer’s biggest stage. The Brazilians will need a special tournament from their attacking stars — wingers Vinicius Jr. and Raphinha in particular — and perhaps a little magic from fading star Neymar, but you can never count Brazil out of a World Cup.

Why they won’t: Optimism in Brazil has never been lower. The national team still has some of the world’s best talent, but the newest crop of Brazilian stars has struggled to perform under the weight of that famous yellow shirt.

World Cup titles: None

Key player: Achraf Hakimi, defender

Why they’ll win it: Morocco made a stunning run to the semifinals in 2022, becoming the first African country to get to the last four at the World Cup, and has continued to perform in the four years since. Morocco won the Africa Cup of Nations in January — albeit in extremely controversial circumstances — and is the biggest threat to break the European and South American dominance over the World Cup.

Why they won’t: Compared with its 2022 squad, Morocco doesn’t have quite as much star talent in midfield and among the forwards. The Moroccans have depth and are well-organized but might fall short on firepower against the tournament’s very best.

World Cup titles: None

Key player: Virgil van Dijk, defender

Why they’ll win it: The Dutch have a formidable back line that could shut down some of the best attackers in the world. Van Dijk has been the premier center back in world soccer over the last decade, and he leads a rock-solid back four into this World Cup. The Netherlands also boast a strong midfield and solid — if unspectacular — attacking talent.

Why they won’t: Coach Ronald Koeman is having to work around a number of injuries all over the pitch. His team is virtually limping into this World Cup, and it might be too much for the Netherlands to overcome.

World Cup titles: None

Key player: Cristiano Ronaldo, forward

Why they’ll win it: The Portuguese are stacked with talent in midfield and attack: PSG star duo Vitinha and Joao Neves, Manchester United talisman Bruno Fernandes, Manchester City stalwart Bernardo Silva, tricky wingers Rafael Leao and Pedro Neto, all before you get to the most prolific goal scorer in the sport’s history. This is likely Ronaldo’s last chance to win the game’s biggest prize, and it might be his best.

Why they won’t: Portugal is a little top-heavy, with a loaded attack and midfield propping up a leaky defense. The Portuguese should score plenty of goals, but they may concede too many to make a real run.

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World Cup titles: 1978, 1986, 2022

Key player: Lionel Messi, forward

Why they’ll win it: Messi, Messi, Messi. The Argentine icon is still playing at a very high level, and you can never put another magical summer past him. Much of the World Cup-winning core from 2022 is back, too, giving manager Lionel Scaloni unusual continuity four years on.

Why they won’t: There’s a reason there hasn’t been a repeat World Cup winner since 1962 — it’s really hard to do. The continuity is great, but most of the Argentine core is four years older, and it wasn’t a young core to begin with.

World Cup titles: 1966

Key player: Harry Kane, forward

Why they’ll win it: One of the best goal scorers on earth (Kane), top midfielders (Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham), a Champions League-winning coach (Thomas Tuchel) — there’s a lot to like. England reached the quarters in 2022, the semis in 2018, and consecutive Euro finals in 2021 and 2024. This group is always a threat in the late stages of these tournaments.

Why they won’t: Well, it’s England. The Three Lions are synonymous with World Cup underperformance (particularly in a previous generation) and haven’t shown an ability to get over the line when it counts.

World Cup titles: 2010

Key player: Lamine Yamal, forward

Why they’ll win it: There’s always a breakout star at the World Cup, and Yamal is the odds-on favorite. He already may be the best player in the world at 18, and he starred for Spain’s Euro-winning side in 2024 at just 16. Add in further attacking talent, two of the best midfielders in the world (Pedri and Rodri), and you have a team that could go toe-to-toe with anyone.

Why they won’t: There are better back lines in this tournament, and hinging all your hopes on a teenager is a lot to ask. There are also teams with more depth; one key injury could be Spain’s undoing.

World Cup titles: 1998, 2018

Key player: Kylian Mbappé, forward

Why they’ll win it: The French have an embarrassment of riches all over the pitch, but particularly up front, where backups such as Bradley Barcola and Désiré Doué would start for almost any other nation. France has a great goalkeeper, excellent defenders, experienced midfielders — there’s a clear favorite this summer, and it’s Les Bleus.

Why they won’t: If there’s one weakness, it’s in midfield, where France isn’t quite as loaded top to bottom. The French also love a soap opera — see the dramatic mutiny of the France team in 2010 — and a little drama in the camp wouldn’t be unprecedented.

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