It has famous names, wildcards, and a COVID doctor: How Maine’s governor race became the primary to watch
There are dynastic brand names, seasoned political hands, outsider wildcards, and one COVID-famous doctor among the dozen leading candidates for Maine governor.
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Most of them, Democrats and Republicans alike, can actually claim a legitimate shot to win their party’s primary on June 9.
But this isn’t any regular race. Maine’s ranked-choice voting system is adding layers of unpredictability — and drama — to the contests by pushing candidates to forge alliances in hopes of boxing out rivals and boosting their own chances.
While the political oxygen in Maine lately has been consumed by the riveting Senate election, the race to succeed outgoing Democratic Governor Janet Mills has, comparatively, flown under the radar.
In some respects, this contest is the more dynamic one, and no less significant in its implications for the future of the state and the current mood of both major parties.
On the Democratic side, there are five top candidates, each with their own distinct appeals: Secretary of State Shenna Bellows; former state Senate leader Troy Jackson; entrepreneur Angus King III; former State House speaker Hannah Pingree; and Nirav Shah, the leader of Maine’s COVID response.
On Tuesday, Bellows, Jackson, and Pingree appeared together to urge their own supporters to rank the other two candidates — a cross-endorsement that could coalesce their own support and block Shah, who has led most available polls. On hand to endorse the alliance was Graham Platner, the party’s presumptive Senate nominee.
ThreeRepublicans have dominated most fund-raising and polling for their nomination: former national security official Bobby Charles; health care executive Jonathan Bush; and former state Senate leader Garrett Mason. (Several other candidates, including real estate executive David Jones and former Crunch Fitness CEO Ben Midgley, have also picked up attention.)
The dynamics in each party distill broader national political forces, albeit with distinctly Maine flavors. In their embrace of Platner, Maine Democrats have epitomized Democrats’ national hunger for “fighters” who will challenge President Trump and push economic populism. But it’s no guarantee their gubernatorial nominee will be in the Platner mold.
For Republican primary voters in Maine, allegiance to Trump and his movement is the dominant concern, just as in other states. But after eight years of Mills, GOP candidates and voters alsoseem attuned to the need for a nominee who can make a broad case against how Democrats have run thestate.
Democrats will be favored in the general election, given headwinds against Republicans in this midterm year. But Maine, which is more purple than blue and has an established independent streak, does not offer any sure bets — especially at a moment of widespread discontent with the status quo.
“The mood of the electorate is incredibly sour,” said Jason Edes of Pan-Atlantic Research, a Portland-based polling outfit. It has long asked Maine voters if they feel the state is on the right or wrong track. “The two worst figures we’ve ever seen were the last two polls we ran,” he said. “It’s worse than during COVID.”
Voters are hungry for different types of candidates, said Jim Melcher, a politics professor at the University of Maine at Farmington. The kinds of traits that would normally help a candidate — like conventional political experience — are not helping this year, he said.
The irony for Democrats is that they have several highly experienced contenders for the governorship, all of whom are touting their resumes while pitching themselves as change agents.
Jackson, Pingree, and Bellows all share long governing records and generally progressive politics. The most engaged Democrats have largely coalesced behind one of the three.
Jackson, a staunch ally of organized labor, is endorsed by VermontSenator Bernie Sanders, and is Platner’s first choice in the race. But he won a solidly Trump-voting legislative district in Aroostook County three times, a record his campaign touted as proof of his populist appeal.
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Bellows is hoping to own the anti-Trump lane; as secretary of state, she moved to disqualify Trump from the 2024 ballot, which proved unsuccessful. In a statement, Bellows noted she grew up in rural Maine, won a Trump-voting state Senate seat, and took on the president directly. “No other candidate in this race can say all of that,” she said.
Pingree has extensive government experience and connections, between serving as state House speaker, and later, spearheading climate and housing initiatives for Mills, who endorsed her last week. Pingree said that “what I bring to this race is a long track record of actually winning fights that matter for Maine families.” (Pingree’s mother is DemocraticUS Representative Chellie Pingree.)
But two newcomers proved to have appeal. An accomplished physician, Shah has enjoyed enduring positive feelings from his role during the pandemic and has drawn healthy crowds at town halls. His campaign called Shah the only candidate who has “led Maine families through a crisis” and pointed to his proposals to address housing shortages and child hunger.
King, who has worked in the clean energy sector, has positioned himself as the most moderate of the five. He’s tapped his famous pedigree — his father, former governor and current Senator Angus King, has appeared in campaign ads — while pitching himself as the real outsider. “This moment calls for something different, a perspective that is broader than just inside the Capitol, and Angus is the only one who can bring that view,” said King campaign manager Heather Cuzzi.
But ranked choice voting offers different incentives than just choosing your favorite. The system allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference, providing for an “instant runoff” if no candidate cracks 50 percent of the vote.
The potential to pick up rivals’ supporters is what animated the three Democrats’ cross-endorsement. Strangely, it was only implied, however, that Shah and King were forces to be stopped. At their event on Tuesday, there was only veiled criticism of other candidates.
On the Republican side, candidates are competing to see who can position themselves most credibly as the true outsider, perhaps even more so than who is the truest Trump backer.
Of the seven who have actively campaigned, only one has held elected office in Augusta: Mason, the former Senate leader. He has leaned into that background to pitch himself as the only contender who can effectively move conservative policy from day one. (Mason has benefited from considerable outside support from billionaire Richard Uihlein.)
Many Republicans see Charles as both the most clearly Trump-aligned candidate in his combative style and as the de facto front runner. He is a favorite among the grass roots, winning the straw poll at the state’s GOP convention. Trump has not endorsed in the race.
Touting his experience in counter-narcotics under President George W. Bush, the Charles campaign said “he isn’t offering theoretical solutions to Maine’s crime, drug, and immigration challenges” and has a “proven track record” of getting results.
Bush, whose performance suggests a potentialtop-three finish, has campaigned more like an old-school conservative, emphasizing his plans to restructure Maine’s Medicaid program and cut taxes. He is related to both Bush presidents.
The Republican primary has been the more contentious one, in part because Charles has the clearest target on his back. In the final stretch of the campaign, several GOP contenders or their allies have run negative ads and mailers accusing Charles of being an “insider” due to past lobbying work.
Maine Republicans’ long-running opposition to ranked-choice voting has made their race even more complex. Charles and Mason have asked their supporters to only rank them first, while casting doubt on the system. Other candidates have strategized more openly around ranked-choice.
One of the big stories of the primary, said UMaine-Farmington’s Melcher, is “Republicans discovering — even as they hate ranked-choice voting — it’s affecting how they think.”
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