{"id":4423,"date":"2026-07-06T19:37:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T19:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=4423"},"modified":"2026-07-06T19:37:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T19:37:00","slug":"the-flawed-fumbling-red-sox-have-outscored-their-opponents-for-the-season-does-that-suggest-better-days-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=4423","title":{"rendered":"The flawed, fumbling Red Sox have outscored their opponents for the season. Does that suggest better days ahead?"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<div>\n<p><span>What a confounding path the Red Sox have forged through 88 games of the 2026 season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=4421\">Mitch McConnell is \u2018continuing his recovery,\u2019 but details are scarce after a lengthy hospital stay<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span>As impressive as the team\u2019s recent 8-2 burst has been, their 40-48 record and last-place standing \u2014 not to mention a seismic managerial and coaching staff shakeup in April \u2014 speak to a season that has veered painfully and profoundly from expectations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>And yet, there are plenty of reminders of the team\u2019s talent. Ranger Suarez and Aroldis Chapman got selected for the All-Star Game, while Sonny Gray had a compelling case. Both Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela rank among the top dozen AL position players in wins above replacement as calculated by FanGraphs, making the Sox one of two AL teams with multiple players in that elite grouping.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><span>Perhaps most notably, the Red Sox have scored five more runs than they\u2019ve allowed this year. They\u2019re one of just six American League teams with a positive run differential.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><span>Get Starting Point<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span>A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday.<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<div><label>Enter Email<\/label><\/p>\n<div><button>Sign Up<\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Typically, run differential correlates well to record. Teams that score more runs than they allow generally are good; teams that get outscored generally are not.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The pattern is far from perfect, but holds well enough that those two basic stats \u2014 runs scored and runs allowed \u2014 are used widely to calculate expected wins and losses. The Sox, based on run differential, have an expected record of 45-43, a mark that would be good enough to hold the third wild-card spot. Instead, they have the fourth-worst record in a weak American League.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cDoes [the run differential] add to the frustration of the win-loss column?\u201d pitching coach Andrew Bailey wondered rhetorically. \u201cMaybe confusion is the right word. We all look at the standings. We all look at run differential. It\u2019s nice to see a green number there. It doesn\u2019t change what our record is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cThe name of the game is to let in less runs than the other team, and we\u2019ve been able to do that slightly positively this year. Obviously, that\u2019s the goal: To prevent runs and score runs. I think that it is sign of a successful team <i>at that metric<\/i>, right? Now, winning games is a different story.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<div><span>Related<span>: <\/span><\/span>The Nationals are full of surprises this season as their rebuild speeds up under new management\u2019s watch<\/div>\n<p><span>The gap between the team\u2019s expected record and actual record is a function of how it\u2019s performed in close games. In games decided by one or two runs, the Sox are 14-26 \u2014 a .350 winning percentage that is the third worst in baseball this year. Meanwhile, they\u2019ve won enough lopsided games (26-22) to elevate their expected record, but not their actual one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cThat [disparity] tells you that the game\u2019s not won or lost on paper,\u201d agreed shortstop Trevor Story. \u201cNumbers can give you a kind of a pulse of what\u2019s going on, but it\u2019s about the winning details, I think. We didn\u2019t do a good job of that, I feel like, the first couple months.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Still, it\u2019s worth asking \u2014 particularly with the Sox amidst their best stretch \u2014 whether teams that significantly underperform their predicted records to this stage of the season typically go on second-half runs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=4419\">Prosecutors argue the man accused of killing Charlie Kirk should stand trial<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span>A look at precedents is \u2026 not terribly promising for the Sox (or, for that matter, the Tigers, who have a 46-44 expected record but are 40-50 thanks to the worst performance in one- and two-run games in MLB this year).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>From the introduction of the 162-game schedule in 1961 through last season, there were 26 teams in non-strike-shortened years that, through 88 games, had a positive run differential and a winning percentage below .475. Their performance over the rest of the season?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>None made the playoffs \u2014 a reminder of the difficulty teams face in digging out of deep holes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>As a group, those teams had a .455 winning percentage through 88 games, and a .461 mark the rest of their seasons.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ten of the 26 teams (39 percent) posted winning percentages of .500 or better over the rest of the season. Just three reached .554 \u2014 the mark that the Sox would need to finish 81-81.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>None of the 26 teams performed at a .581 or better mark down the stretch \u2014 the winning percentage the Sox would need to get to 83 wins, the fewest number of wins that resulted in a playoff berth in a full season over the last 20 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The most hopeful precedents were from 2023, when the Cubs and Padres surged back into contention in a weak NL wild-card field. But both ultimately fell short, with the Cubs finishing at 83-79, one game behind Arizona, and the Padres at 82-80.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>This year\u2019s unimpressive AL landscape offers the Sox some grounds for hope. The last AL wild-card spot is currently held by the Rangers (45-45), whom the Sox trail by just four games. While they remain close to the back of the league-wide traffic jams, the license plates in front of them remain visible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cThat\u2019s kind of what it comes down to,\u201d said Story. \u201cThe AL not being so potent has kept us in it.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Still, to overcome the deficit, the team will need not only considerable improvement, but also its actual performance to start matching \u2014 or exceeding \u2014 expectations. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=4417\">FIFA red card reprieve for US is the latest example of the new world order<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Sox, based on run differential, have an expected record of 45-43, a mark that would be good enough to hold the third wild-card spot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4422,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sport"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The flawed, fumbling Red Sox have outscored their opponents for the season. 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