{"id":29,"date":"2026-05-10T13:04:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T13:04:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=29"},"modified":"2026-05-10T13:04:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T13:04:16","slug":"is-the-gop-nomination-for-governor-already-sewn-up-history-says-not-so-fast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=29","title":{"rendered":"Is the GOP nomination for governor already sewn up? History says, not so fast."},"content":{"rendered":"
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To judge from Mike Minogue\u2019s campaign, the GOP nomination for governor is all settled. <\/span><\/p>\n

Read more Obama weighs in on Colbert for president, current political climate, and aliens on \u2018The Late Show\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

Or to speak the language of this very successful businessman, a completed transaction. <\/span><\/p>\n

After a resounding victory at the state convention in April, Minogue is pushing for his lone remaining opponent, former MBTA head Brian Shortsleeve, to get out of the race. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The power of a state convention win \u2014even by the wide margin that Minogue enjoyed \u2014 truly lies in the eye of the beholder. Winners invariably cast it as the expression of the will of the party. Losers tend to see it as an intramural skirmish that has little connection to the final outcome. <\/span><\/p>\n

Personally, I am a longtime skeptic of the significance of state conventions.<\/span><\/p>\n

After all, I\u2019ve seen secretary of state candidate Josh Zakim crush a state convention only to get destroyed in a primary a few months later. Some people remember 1990, when the convention-winning candidates for governor from both parties \u2014 Steve Pierce and Frank Bellotti \u2014 lost their primaries (to William Weld and John Silber, respectively). <\/span><\/p>\n

As a wise political consultant once said to me, \u201cConventions are an attempt to impose party unity in a vacuum.\u201d Sometimes the party listens, and sometimes it doesn\u2019t. <\/span><\/p>\n

Minogue was a political unknown until recently. The longtime head of the medical device company Abiomed, he has already poured millions of dollars of his own money into the governor\u2019s race. He speaks of being a \u201cnew kind of governor\u201d who will run Massachusetts like a business. <\/span><\/p>\n

He speaks of the primary almost as an annoyance, a minor detour on the way to a November showdown with Governor Maura Healey. Considering how little most voters still know about him, his self-assurance is breathtaking. <\/span><\/p>\n

Shortsleeve \u2014 himself a businessman before becoming an insider with Governor Charlie Baker \u2014 has shown no willingness to leave the race. Spokeswoman Holly Robichaud insisted that Shortsleeve still has a path to the nomination. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cMike Minogue\u2019s convention support from party insiders represented less than one half of one percent of the voters expected to participate in the Republican primary,\u201d Robichaud wrote in an email. \u201cThe Republican Party leaders at the convention have a terrific record of enthusiastically endorsing general election losers, which they have done in every single statewide election since 2018.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Robichaud suggested Minogue\u2019s opposition to abortion rights renders him unelectable. <\/span><\/p>\n

Read more Maine\u2019s Susan Collins reveals she\u2019s long been diagnosed with a benign tremor<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cA vote for Minogue in the primary is a vote for another four years of Maura Healey.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Intraparty skirmishes are nothing new for the Massachusetts Republican Party. Particularly in the decade of Donald Trump, the party has struggled mightily. It can\u2019t thread the needle between the diehard right-wingers that make up its base and the more moderate unenrolled voters it needs to win statewide races. <\/span><\/p>\n

No surprise then that Minogue seems to want to avoid a protracted battle within the party. But there\u2019s still the pesky matter of the voters having their say in a primary. <\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, it\u2019s an open question whether either of these guys can make a real run at unseating Healey.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s early in the race. But a recent Globe\/Suffolk poll indicated that Healey is basically as popular as she\u2019s ever been, with 81 percent of respondents viewing her performance favorably, versus just 12 percent who view it unfavorably.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though the state\u2019s cost of living is certainly a major concern, knocking her off will be a major challenge, no matter how much the Republican nominee is willing to spend. <\/span><\/p>\n

Many people in politics would say a robust primary is always a good thing \u2014 good for voters and good training for candidates, especially untested candidates like Minogue and Shortsleeve. This race should play out, no matter how much of an edge Minogue seems to have in the moment. <\/span><\/p>\n

The convention might not be meaningless, but it certainly doesn\u2019t mean he\u2019s won anything real. <\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s been eight years since a Republican won a statewide race in Massachusetts, and there certainly hasn\u2019t been a recent discernible shift in their favor. Truth is, most voters would struggle to name either of the GOP candidates for governor. <\/span><\/p>\n

Of all the qualities one of them might bring to this contest, overconfidence is probably the most surprising choice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more What do New York, Maine, and Indiana have in common? The ruling class was thrown out.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

To judge from Mike Minogue\u2019s campaign, the GOP nomination for governor is all settled. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nIs the GOP nomination for governor already sewn up? History says, not so fast. - Boston Relocation Insider<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=29\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the GOP nomination for governor already sewn up? 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