{"id":1690,"date":"2026-06-01T09:33:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T09:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=1690"},"modified":"2026-06-01T09:33:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T09:33:24","slug":"democrats-should-curb-their-enthusiasm-on-taking-over-the-senate-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=1690","title":{"rendered":"Democrats should curb their enthusiasm on taking over the Senate in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<article>\n<div>\n<p><span>Democrats have had legitimate reasons to feel optimistic about their chances in the midterms \u2014 and not just taking over the US House majority next year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=1688\">Are the Red Sox better off now than when they hired Craig Breslow as chief baseball officer? Here\u2019s a closer look.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span>The Senate race in Texas couldn\u2019t possibly have gone much better for Democrats. They got the candidate they wanted as well as their preferred Republican opponent, the one carrying a ton of baggage. And it all unfolded in a way that allowed Democratic nominee, state Representative James Talarico, to raise massive amounts of money over the last two months while Republicans spent even more in a bruising runoff that concluded last week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>In addition, a fresh wave of polling suggests Democrats are in a position to flip seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Alaska.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><span>The idea of Democrats recapturing the Senate November went from pure fantasy last year to \u201cif you squint, you can see a path,\u201d to a point now where Democrats have a legitimate chance of pulling it off.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><span>Get Starting Point<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span>A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday.<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<div><label>Enter Email<\/label><\/p>\n<div><button>Sign Up<\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>But does this mean it\u2019s a done deal for Democrats? Hardly. In fact, by nearly every metric, Democrats remain the underdogs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Here are three things to watch in the coming months:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><b>The remaining primary season<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>At this point, 25 states have yet to hold Senate primaries. Of those, seven feature remotely competitive Senate contests this year: Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Minnesota, Florida, and New Hampshire.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To take the Senate majority, Democrats need to hold three battleground seats currently in Democratic hands \u2014 Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia \u2014 and, as mentioned above, flip four Republican-held seats.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>While much of the analysis has focused on which Republican seats Democrats could flip, what has gone somewhat under the radar is that one of those Democratic-held seats is not firmly in their camp. That seat is in Michigan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The three-way Democratic primary to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters isn\u2019t until Aug. 4. While the race remains a scramble \u2014 and is probably the most interesting Democratic primary in the country right now \u2014 all three candidates have consistently trailed likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers, a former congressman who is less associated with Trump\u2019s MAGA movement than many other Republican candidates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>If Republicans flip Michigan (or Georgia or New Hampshire) it becomes extremely difficult for Democrats to win the Senate majority.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Which of the three Democrats running is most electable? All three have their arguments. The bigger question is whether the eventual nominee will emerge broke and bruised ahead of a four-month sprint to Election Day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Meanwhile, there are other interesting chess pieces to watch: whether more unelectable candidates emerge as the Republican or Democratic nominees in Iowa on June 2, who Democrats nominate in Minnesota on Aug. 11, and who comes out of the New Hampshire Republican primary on Sept. 8 featuring former senators Scott Brown and John E. Sununu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Candidates still matter, especially in close contests.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><b>The economy, stupid<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Americans remain pretty down on the state of the economy and their own personal finances even though, at the macro level, the economy remains strong and wages are improving, particularly for those lower on the economic ladder.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=1686\">Lexington girls graduate to two-time Division 1 track champions, St. John\u2019s Prep sprints to boys\u2019 title<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span>But inflation remains a problem under Trump, and gas prices are at their highest levels ever.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Who knows whether there will be an AI bust or boom that impacts equity markets. But health care costs are higher. Housing costs are higher. Groceries remain expensive. At some point,  a potential deal with Iran could matter in shaping gas prices and public moods ahead of the election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>At the moment, the economy and affordability are both the dominant campaign issue and the biggest X-factor in the race.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><b>What\u2019s happening with mail-in ballots<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Roughly a third of Americans now vote by mail, especially as a number of states kept COVID-era voting laws on the books because they proved to be so popular.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>There are two things to watch in the coming weeks as they relate to mail-in voting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>In June, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether mail-in ballots can be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day but arrive later. (This does not affect military ballots from overseas.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Most states either restrict mail-in voting or require ballots to arrive by Election Day. That leaves only 12 states potentially affected by the ruling, and Alaska is the only Senate battleground where it could really matter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Since Democrats typically rely more heavily on mail-in ballots than Republicans, the ruling could provide a slight advantage to Republicans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>But another development may have a bigger impact.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>On Friday, it was reported that, as part of an effort to obtain voter rolls from states, the Trump administration is preparing a rule that would allow the US Postal Service to deliver ballots only in states that comply with that request. The administration says it wants to review voter rolls for evidence of voter fraud, specifically whether non-citizens are registered to vote, which is already illegal. On Thursday, a federal judge declined to block the administration\u2019s effort.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>If this USPS policy ultimately takes effect, it could affect every state in the country \u2014 including absentee ballot requests \u2014 and, with it, every Senate battleground.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>For all the excitement Democrats are feeling right now, the Senate map remains narrow, difficult, and highly dependent on factors that are still unfolding. The path exists. But between the primaries, the economy, and the legal battles over voting, there is still plenty of time for that path to either widen or disappear. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=1684\">Sunday\u2019s nine high school tournament takeaways, including major upsets and Bumila\u2019s first playoff start<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The idea of Democrats flipping the Senate seats in November went from pure fantasy last year, to \u201cif you squint, you can see a path,\u201d to a point now where Democrats have a legitimate chance of pulling it off.<br \/>\nBut does this mean it\u2019s a done deal for Democrats? Hardly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Democrats should curb their enthusiasm on taking over the Senate in 2026 - Boston Relocation Insider<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bostonrelocationinsider.com\/?p=1690\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Democrats should curb their enthusiasm on taking over the Senate in 2026 - Boston Relocation Insider\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The idea of Democrats flipping the Senate seats in November went from pure fantasy last year, to \u201cif you squint, you can see a path,\u201d to a point now where Democrats have a legitimate chance of pulling it off. 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